Modeling the impact of changes in the structure of the company’s balance sheet on its financial stability on the example of PJSC «Aeroflot»

The purpose of this work is to model the impact of changes in the accounts receivable and creditor structures of the balance sheet of the company PJSC «Aeroflot» on its financial stability in the period 2013 - 2022. To determine the cause-and-effect relationship between variables in the short term, Granger causality was used in the work. In the course of creating a model for forecasting and planning in the long term (2024 - 2028), modern methods were used in the work, such as: the extended Dickey-Fuller test to test the stationarity of time series of variables, the Johansen cointegration technique and others. The paper concludes that a positive change in the debtor structure has a negative impact on the financial stability of the company, while at the same time; a positive change in the creditor structure has a positive effect on its financial stability. In other words, an increase in financial resources through increasing equity capital and borrowing motivates the company to achieve financial stability; hence the company will be able to cover its liabilities as well as losses incurred as a result of the company's activities. At the same time, the use of financial resources in the acquisition of assets negatively effects on the company's financial stability indicators.