Modeling the impact of resource factors on agricultural output

The relevance of the research is justified by the need to find the sources of agricultural production growth due to the effective use of resource factors. The purpose of the work is to model the influence of the labor factor and the capital factor on the production of agricultural products. The research method consists in using the Cobb-Douglas production function to build a model of the influence of enlarged production factors on output. The novelty of the author’s approach lies in using cost characteristics of labor and capital costs, which allows to obtain more reliable indicators of elasticity by presenting the resource costs in a single calculation. The data from international statistics presented in the development of the international research project World Input-Output Database (WIOD) is proposed to be use as indicators describing the costs of factors of production. Capital expenditure is characterized by the Capital compensation indicator; to estimate labor costs, it is more appropriate to use the Compensation of employees indicator, which reflects labor costs in the form of employees’ total wages. Calculations of the production function for various time intervals allowed to estimate the elasticity of output of Russian agricultural production in terms of labor and capital costs in absolute and relative terms in retrospect.The author makes a conclusion about the priority influence of the labor factor on output in the agricultural sector, about the high labor intensity of agricultural production in Russia in the absolute measurement of labor costs. Based on the obtained parameters of the production function, using the data from Russian statistics, the researcher presents a three-variable forecast of gross agricultural production dynamics, depending on changes in labor productivity and capital return. The models built allow to make predictive assessments of the industry complexes development, and can also be used in the development and adjustment of the main directions of the state agricultural policy for the effective use of the resource potential.