Modern Situation in the Arctic in the Context of Global Trends

This article sets a goal and solves problems of showing multipolarity of a changing world and other megatrends, using materials of report of the USA National Intelligence Council «Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds» (December 2012), and also changing of international relation--‐ ship after back of Crimea as part of Russia at a time when the influence of China grows and NATO countries returns usage of instruments of Cold War, and also influence of these trends on the modern situation in Arctic. Commonly scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, web--‐analysis, historical, geopolitical and interdisciplinary methods are used.

Megatrends as being rather sustainable, non--‐current and massive tendencies are defined by those real global processes, which happen today in a changeable world or can seriously influ--‐ ence the future correlation of forces in the future, including Arctic region. Each new challenge, be--‐ ing inside or outside, according to A. Toinby asks for adequate answers, but their quality is always different. That’s why the really happened in the modern world processes are not always format in a variety of strategically important trends for a long--‐term perspective. Nowadays an influence of civilization determinants is increased: cultural, ethnical mentality, belonging to history--‐cultural ar--‐ eas [1, I.F.Kefeli, pp.11--‐13], what appeared rather convexly and during the crisis process чin Ukraine.

A changing world

When characterizing the modern world as continuously changing world, in the most com--‐ mon appearance it is dominated from the beginning of the 21st century by 2 determined process--‐ es: a) permanent changes, usually of a crisis character, which lead to building--‐up of a potential of conflicts and instability; c) long period for transition to multi--‐centricity and multipolarity. These two processes of a global scale in more or less expressed way are transformed into concrete trends in midterm.

Constant changes nowadays happen practically in all the spheres of human lives: geopoliti--‐ cal, geoeconomic, geocultural, social--‐demographical and ethnic. Moreover, a movement of com--‐ munity development continuous to accelerate and intensity of historically important events in--‐ creases [2, p.5]. In the 21st century content and methods of government of a state, business, socie--‐ ty and people stay unchangeable. Management of changes itself became a reality of presence and development of organizations of all types and all forms of incorporation, an important issue of modernization in a changing world, including Arctic region.

In conditions of ongoing globalization the tendency of permanent changes is correlated with increasing potential of instability. Crisis processes, business struggle in economic and finan--‐ cial sphere are escalated, a chaos, firstly controlled appears. Presented close connections of all countries’ economics and at the same moment a keen states’, transnational corporations’ (TNC) and financial oligarchy’s competition for market again demonstrated world financial crisis, when negative processes in one country (the USA) as a burning fire from the year 2008 up to nowadays at once influenced practically the whole world. A great crisis passed a number of time circles, grasping new countries and peoples and influencing the level and quality of life of hundreds of mil--‐ lions people through the whole world nowadays and in the future. Problems with money, back of credits, decline of goods and services production volume led to mass dismissal, growth of unem--‐ ployment, especially among youth, what demonstrably appeared in many countries of the Euro--‐ pean Union (Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal, Bulgaria and others).

Further development of the world economics will be much determined by the balance be--‐ tween formed tendency of the world economics incremental globalization and the trend of re--‐ gionalization as reaction on escalation of the tension between world strength centers and concen--‐ tration of disproportions in the world trading and financial system. Crisis which passes on the prin--‐ ciple of globalization “we all are in the same boat”, simultaneously increase the processes of pro--‐ tectionism, aiming for autarchy and surviving of each country one by one. A global society gradual--‐ ly flakes into autonomous parts, which usually doesn’t coincide with administrative--‐state borders. Different socio--‐cultural values, variety of regional confessions, staying of centuries--‐long traditions of peoples’ and states’ distrust to each other; psychology and morality today more divide than unite people by all the seemed rather strong tendency of common technological, mass culture, formation of postindustrial civilization and global society of autonomous communities; standardi--‐ zation of all the parts of human lives and organizations. The dynamics of regionalization processes is rather complex and ambiguous; today it is very difficult to forecast how sustainable and long--‐ going this tendency will be.

Even more alarming indicator of permanent instability become regional conflicts, which decay all around the world. From practically the beginning of the 21st century daily and monthly there don’t finish actions using all the instruments of soft and hard power in the global society. Informational psychological wars and power actions of different types, where Russia is forced into, don’t stop even for a minute. 2008 our country, when accomplishing their treaty obligations, had to answer by usage of war power on Georgia direct aggression against the peoples of South Osse--‐ tia and Abkhazia. 2014 Russia again found to be before difficult choice. A stroke of state in Ukraine demonstrated a modern model of two--‐ply so to say “peaceful” popular revolution on maidan in Kiev, which include in the meantime both peaceful and power technologies, sponsored by the USA and in fact led to cilvil war. Answering this challenge and real aggression to the Russian popula--‐ tion, Russia helped the Crimea Republic and Sevastopol, who on the 18th of March 2014 entered the Russian Federation as its subjects. These events became not only the symbol, cruital moment in the newest history of Russia, but also the beginning of a new era of international relations changing, including situation in Arctic.

By that fact in society there is a bright and clear understanding, that the main source of in--‐ stability in the modern world not Russia is considered to be, who as a matter of fact just answers from time to time appeared challenges. The source of a global instability after the USSR fall at any way became the USA with their mission of a global policeman, its exclusiveness, double standards and power promotion of west democracy in other countries. At first we must name here war in--‐ terventions and NATO countries in Yugoslavia (1999), Iraq (2003--‐2011), Afghanistan (2001--‐2014), war operations of NATO forces during civil war in Libya (2011). A bloody war in Syria (2012--‐2014) is continuing not without the USA, Turkey, Franca and other NATO countries. These “hot spots” of the modernity molder endless for two decades and their end is not seen. Secondly, the USA purposefully and systematically undermine the situation in ex--‐Soviet space, while using the mechanism of the so--‐ called “colored revolutions”: “rose revolution” in Georgia (2003), orange revolution in Ukraine (2004), “tulip revolution” and disorders in Kirghizia (2005, 2010), mass disorders in Belorussia (2006), “snowdrop revolution” in Armenian (2008), “tile revolution” in Moldavia; “Russian winter” in Russia (2011--‐2012), when political meetings of the inside opposition with the help of foreigners on Bolotnaya square and Sakharov prospect took place; euromaidan 2013--‐2014 in Kiev. Thirdly, a wave of demonstrations and military takeovers, mass protests, the so--‐called “Arabian spring” took place in Middle East in Tunis (2010--‐2011), Alger (2010--‐2011), Egypt (2011--‐2013), Yemen (2011--‐2012), Bah--‐ rain (2011), Oman (2011), Jordan (2011), Morocco (2011) and other countries of the Arabian world by latent support of not only USA, but conservative Islamic regimes. The situation in Iraq again exac--‐ erbates in June 2014.

The former USA president Jimmy Carter in his interview to the journal Salon when answer--‐ ing the question how another part of the world takes us (here it goes on USA), suggested that practically the whole world takes America as the warmonger №11. Gallup International investiga--‐ tion called “Global barometer of hope and despair”, which took place in November--‐December 2013, really showed that practically one--‐fourth (24%) of earth citizens considered USA to be the most threatening. According to the world estimates appeared to be on the 12th place, it got 2%. It is important to notice that 2014 the public opinion after back of the Crimea to Russia, state coup and civil war in the Ukraine could be changed under the influence of psychological reaction and information manipulation, its distortion.

24%

Pic. 1. Gallup International investigation: which country is considered to be the most threatened for the whole world 2014. Available at: strana_ predstavlyaet_nai--‐bolshuyu _ugrozu_dlya_vsego_mira_v_2014_godu/ (accessed 24.04.2014).

As a conclusion we can say that global and regional instability, being understood as sus--‐ tainable incremental development of most of states, in the beginning of the 21st century practical--‐ ly doesn’t exist. Transition from monopoly hegemony of the USA to the multipolar world leads to incremental formation of other power centers such as China, BRICS, Eurasian economic unit, Eco--‐ nomic belt of silk way, appearance of another political actors on the world arena. But for how long will this process of transition to multipolarity continue and what else will states who make away with constant USA dictate meet with? Nowadays it is impossible to answer these and other similar questions. And here appreciation of global trends by the USA is of interest.

China up, Russia down

In report of the National Intelligence Council2 «Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds» it is noted that the USA foresee the trends of vectors over the last years right: «China up, Russia down». Rates of economic growth in Russia have really slowed down, and China participation, in spite of economic growth slowing down, will constitute for about one--‐third of the world econom--‐ ics 2025.

• 3 megatrends are emphasized in the analyzed report:

• 1.    Individual empowerment . Growth of individual opportunities as a fact of poverty reduce, middle class increase, widening of the educational system, usage of new communication and production technologies, achievements in medicine.

• 2.    Diffusion of Power. Diffusion of power supposes that there will be no hegemony--‐empire, succes--‐ sion to nets and coalitions in multipolar world takes place. China will be the greatest world economy, more than USA. European countries, Japan and Russia, will probably continue their slow relative reduction. A various spectrum of war instruments, especially opportunities of high--‐ accuracy strike, cyber--‐instruments and bioterrorism for private people and groups of people, who will have an opportunity to make large--‐scale violence and destroy, what was earlier a mo--‐ nopoly of the state, will become accessible.

• 3.    Demographic Patterns . а) Unprecedented and prevalent age hardening; b) reducing of young societies and states; c) increasing of migrations, which becomes more globalized, both rich and developing countries suffer from manpower tightness; d) increasing urbanization, 60% of the world population will live in urbanized districts.

• 4.    Food, Water, Energy Nexus . Because of world population, structure of consumption and middle class increase, there takes place an increase of production and growth in demand of products on 35% to the year 2030, water on 40% and energy resources. Practically one half of the world pop--‐ ulation will live in districts, where will be acute shortage of drinking water. Many countries prob--‐ ably will not have enough money to evade lack of products and water without massive help from outside. There will be enough shale gas in the USA to satisfy the inside demands and to create a potential of the world export for decades.

To the number of the key critical game--‐changers, which pathways are less pointed, accord--‐ ing to the USA intelligence, belong:

• 1.    Crisis--‐Prone Global economy . Crisis--‐prone global economy leads to global instability and increas--‐ ing disproportions between players with different economic interests as a result of collapse? Or increasing of multipolarity will lead to increase of sustainability in the focus of the world econom--‐

• 2.    Governance Gap. Governance gap because of increasing of a number of state and non--‐state players and also subnational objects complicates the process of decision--‐making. In spite of growing multipolarity a regionalism is also growing. Processes of democratization are accompanied by instability, for about 50 countries are between autocracy and democracy. Social nets, on one hand, let the population unite and challenge the power (Middle East), on the other hand, they give autocratic and democratic governments an unprecedented opportunity to control their citizens.

• 3.    Potential for Increased conflict. Potential for increased conflict: historical tendencies witness re--‐ duction of great conflicts, but fast changes of power lead to potential concentration for state and interstate conflicts, especially with the increase of differences over the issues of deficit of natural resources (water, earth). A modern Islamist phase of terrorism could finish by the year 2030, but the terrorism itself will not likely die.

• 4.    Wider scope of regional Instability . Wider scope of regional instability, especially on the Middle East and in the South Asia influence the global security. Appearance of moderate, democratic governments or breakthrough of Israel--‐Palestine conflict settling will have absolutely positive consequences. For the nearest 15--‐20 years the South Asia will face a number of inside and outside convulsions. Different scenarios of these conflicts are possible.

• 5.    Impact of new Technologies . Influence of new technologies on an economical growth, decisions of problems, called by population increase, fast urbanization and climate change. Four groups will form global economical, social and war actions: а) IT, social media, cybersafety; б) new technologies of production and automation, robotechnics; в) recourse technologies for supplying with unexpendable resources: food, water, energy. MMC, methods of irrigation are used, increase of oil--‐and--‐gas exploitation takes place; г) new technologies of health service.

• 6.    Role of the United States . USA will probably stay “first among equal”, single--‐polarity finishes. Questions of work with new partners, modernization of international system takes place. In the best foreseen way USA and China collaborate in a number of questions, that will lead to more wide global collaboration. In the worst way a risk of international conflicts will increase. Dollar downing as the world reserve currency strongly explodes the political influence of Washington [4].

ic order? In the countries with forming infrastructure, habitation, consumer goods, new factories and equipment demand market global investments will increase to the level, unprecedented during last 4 decades.

World of 2030 will radically change. No country, whether USA, China or any other country couldn’t be a hegemony, --‐ that is written in the research. Four scenarios up to the year 2030 are introduced. They are named nominally “Skidding motors”, “Collaboration”, “Gene from the bottle” and “World of non--‐state actors”. But a serious analytics according to Russia in this research was missing. Arctic was shortly mentioned in the way of climate and temperature change, reduction of sea ice and increase of sea level because of deglaciation in Greenland.

Arctic trends in Russia

Meanwhile it is important for us to understand those real challenges, which arrear before Russia in the Arctic and will define the tendencies of future development. As for climate, academi--‐ cian of RAS G.G. Matyshov suggests that high noon of warming in Arctic is over and it begins a cy--‐ clic period of cooling (29.05.2014, Murmansk). According to the carried out analysis to the main arctic megatrends, on my opinion, we can refer 3: 1) Ecological interdependence, arctic solidarity. 2) Great redistribution of Arctic: struggle for lands, communications and arctic resources. 3) For--‐ mation of arctic multipolarity model in a modern changing world, increasing activity in Arctic.

Ecologic interdependence (EID) is defined by myself as a quality of person--‐nature relations for the purpose of preservation of the environment and also arctic solidarity with people’s actions as an opportunity to carry on a dialogue and to make arrangements about introduction of limita--‐ tions, standards, people’s rules rights, business and states in Arctic. By all the incongruity of opin--‐ ions about the future of the Arctic region, the ecological interdependency in a wide way, is still considered to be the paradigm of continuous discussions, scientific forecasts and concretely is de--‐ veloped in:

• a)    Human factor, which is in much influenced by people’s charge, quality of men’s capital, social cohesion of population;

• b)    Professional and competent management of the Arctic zone of the RF;

• c)    Presence of rules and regulations for decision of appeared problems of the Arctic envi--‐ ronmental preservation;

• d)    Necessity of balances between economy and ecology;

• e)    Time to market modern environmental--‐saving technologies, innovations in the practice of actions, in presence of investments for it, as it leads to increase of resources’ prime costs and of expenditure;

• f)    Presence of infrastructure for provision of needful freedom level of population’s movement, finances, goods and services, information and also of motivated already ex--‐ isted liberalization in trans--‐border mobility in Arctic of tourists, travelers, indigoes peo--‐ ples (visas, quotas and customs and so on).

In scientific world, internet, mass media a question of whether it is current to begin an ac--‐ tive operational activity on exploitation in the Arctic is discussed. Many scientists and ecologists are in favor of conservation of arctic natural values and of saving of Arctic biological variety in un--‐ touched softness and in a state of nature for future generations. Greenpeace by all possible means tries to create a world preserve in the Arctic and to forbid oil--‐and--‐gas exploitation, fishing in arctic waters. They motivate it by the fact that no company knows how to liquidate oil spill effectively. A corresponding member of RAS F.N.Udakhin (1934--‐2011) in due time alerted «revenge of Arctic mineral resources». By transfer of hydrocarbons from the earth there happens rearrangement of stress conditions in crust of earth, which can cause earthquakes, break in the pipe--‐line, pollution of Arctic soft environment and other negative circumstances being more dangerous and great than the catastrophe in a Mexican Bay.

It is also important to pay attention to scientific--‐proved summaries that Russia, having great hydrocarbon reservoirs on the earth, can put on hold its exploitation in Arctic seas, when minimizing by that fact ecological risks. Minister of natural resources and ecology of the RF Sergey Donskoy on the 15^th of January 2013 in Novy Urengoy on the meeting “Of perspectives of Russian continental shelf resources development” under the heading of Russian Prime Minister D. Medvedev suggested that without increasing of geological knowledge of Russian continental shelf perspectives of its exploitation shift to 2030³. And it’s really that according to the published 2013 in MNR of the RF data of exploited and proved Russian oil--‐and--‐gas reserves, proportion of Arctic shelf deposits consists only 2 . Moreover, solid reserves of oil exploitation on the earth are not exhausted yet: usage of new technologies of effectiveness increase of oil--‐and--‐gas exploitation; in--‐ crease of level of casing--‐head gas rational usage (shortage of its burning volumes); development and wide usage of new technologies of light tight and low--‐grade oil exploitation and others [3]. Assistant director of RAS oil and gas problems, RAS corresponding member V.I. Boyagoyavlensky makes an important conclusion that “Russia has great resources and reserves of hydrocarbon in different regions of the land, that’s why it can come along to the Arctic sea reserves exploitation at a saunter, choosing the best and the most secure innovational technologies, when saving the stra--‐ tegic reserve of hydrocarbon and soft nature of the Arctic for future generations” [3, p.15]. Profes--‐ sor of National mineral university “Gorny” (SpB) A.E. Cherepovizin also considers the current state of geological development doesn’t let to overview oil--‐and--‐gas sea reserves to be a real reserve of hydrocarbon [4, pp.191--‐192]. When acting on the conference in Murmansk “Russian national in--‐ terests and economy of sea communications in Arctic” which took place 29--‐30^th May used a slide called “Greatest Gazprom projects — what shelf for when there are projects on the ground?”

More facts appear that ESI problem becomes a real trend for many years not only in sci--‐ ence, politics of Arctic states, but also in a real activity of greatest energy companies of the USA, Norway, Great Britain and Russia who produce oil and gas in high north latitudes or those who plans to do it. There is nobody who wants to give up usage of arctic hydrocarbon nowadays and in the future in a whole way, but ecology, necessity of Arctic environment safety dictate its limita--‐ tion.

Resource challenges in the Arctic ask not only for understanding of danger and risk for the environment, but also for a strong compliance of a balance between economy and ecology accord--‐ ing to usage of innovational, more safety technologies in the nearest future. A quality break--‐ through in Arctic, which will cut ecological risks, can become underwater complexes of hydrocar--‐ bon exploitation. Underwater oil--‐and--‐gas exploitation spread from the 60--‐s of the last century. In the practice of sea activities up to modern times there is a definite background, new projects in both Russia and abroad, based on minimization of ecological challenges, are evaluated.

For the first time in the history of native gas production an underwater producing complex of “Gazprom” appeared for development of continental shelf exploitation, which from October 2013 works on Kirinskoye field in the Sea of Okhotsk 4. The complex lets to excavate hydrocarbons in horrible weather conditions, even under ice without building of overwater constructions, and its equipment is tolerant to earthquakes up to 9 on Richter scale. The produced gas is collected in manifold, situated 90 meters depth, brought through the sea product pipeline to the shore tech--‐ nological complex and then through the 139--‐kilometer gas--‐transmission pipeline to the head compressor station of gas--‐transport system “Sakhalin – Khabarovsk – Vladivostok”.

O.Ya.Timofeev thinks that « probably in our Arctic all technologies will be connected with underwater going of objects , because there are great problems with flat ice load»⁵. Since June 2013 Fund of Perspective Investigations (FPI), Rubin Central Design Bureau for Marine Engineer--‐ ing, OAO “Gazprom” and Far--‐Eastern Division of RAS lead down a working out of avant--‐project “Technologies of underwater (under ice) field development of natural resources of the Arctic seas” [5, D.O.Rogozin].

Based on usage of underwater technologies it is supposed to lead development of the Murmansk gas field in the Barents Sea. Underwater technologies of development and transporta--‐ tion of gas are used Ormen Lange project on a great gas continental shelf field in Norway. But in April 2014 this project was postponed for the purpose of concept for offshore compression based on new economic expenses estimate6. As restrictions in this and other projects appear expenses, economic factors in usage of newest technologies.

A Norwegian company Statoil is planning to bring into production the first underwater fab--‐ ric with full circle to the year 2020. «Statoil Subsea Factory» will make possible a remote control over hydrocarbon transportation from every point on the shore. Arctic production fields of the fu--‐ ture will conceptually present uninhabited multimoduled complexes with the full production cir--‐ cle, the whole “underwater cities” with its transport, energy and connecting lines. Anyway, this problematic is rather current in the process from both from the point of view of saving of tender Arctic environment and of ecological (non--‐maleficence) and economic position (investments, ex--‐ penses, modern technologies and human factor).

Human factor, which is connected with human capital (HC) formation in Arctic, with quality of new resources, is considered to be the key element of ecological interdependence . Typical forms of investment here appear to be education, advanced training, migration and job hunting, health and nutrition, relax, physical education and sport. A direct attitude to formation of HC have both trends, pointed in USA intelligence report (2012) and in UN report about climate changes and hu--‐ man solidarity in a disunited world (2007)⁷. In one or another way all the pointed problems have direct attitude to habitability in Arctic.

In solving of a problem of human capital formation on the North there are each other can--‐ celled positions. This question provoke discussions because of different approaches to Arctic field exploration: а) by rotating scheme, gradually resettling the population living in high latitude to warmer regions; b) by the way of renewal and supporting on a high level of all existed in Russian Arctic urbanized infrastructure. The second approach demands for huge investments in develop--‐ ment of all the social sphere, housing and public utilities, transport infrastructure of already exist--‐ ed base city population in high latitude: Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Severodvinsk, Naryan--‐Mar, Amderma, Vorkuta, Salekhard, Norilsk, Dudinka, Dickson, Tiksi, Anadir and others. Virtual projects of creation of new “innovational cities”, which will never be compensated, unlikely to have real perspectives. Creation of compact temporary settlements with usage of the most current and eco--‐ logically clear life support technologies for tourists, militaries, border guards, oilers, meteorolo--‐ gists, gas workers and other specialists who explore and control the Arctic fields is current. Rotat--‐ ing scheme is impossible to exclude in the whole, but to place the stake just on it would be im--‐ providently. That’s why the modern rotating scheme and development of already existent settle--‐ ments in the Russian Arctic – the only right strategy in this question.

Decision of questions of socio--‐economic development, population size and quality of their lives, social cohesion and also determine of inside and outside borders of Russian Arctic settle--‐ ments appear to be serious global challenge for Russia. Russian Arctic – is not a blank space, here live 2,5 mln. people, as in the other seven Arctic countries just 2,1 mln. people.

Important documents on socio--‐economic development of Russian Arctic were admitted by the President and Government of the Russian Federation in the end of April – beginning of May 2014:

• a)    On the 21^st of April Government of the RF by their order № 366 ratify the state program of the Russian Federation “Socio--‐economical development of the Russian Federation Arctic zone up to the year 2020”⁸.

• b)    On the 22^nd of April 2014 under the chairmanship of the President of RF meeting of the RF Security Council on Arctic took place.

• c)    On the 2^nd of May 2014 President of Russia V.V. Putin signed a decree №296 “About Russian Federation Arctic zone land territories”.

An adopted state program (abbreviated – SP “AZRF – 2020”) mostly synthesizes implemen--‐ tation program under the already realizing FIP and other state programs of the RF⁹. Acceleration of socio--‐economic development of the AZRF is supplied by the way of implementation of social development questions in the strategies of long term evolution of federal regions and subjects of the RF, sectoral strategies and programs. But the “full funding of the program” will begin only from 2017¹⁰. This means that this program initially doesn’t work at full breath and destined for bureau--‐ cratic games around it.

By decree of a President of Russia № 296 from the 2nd of May 2014 “About land territories of the Russian Federation Arctic zones” AZRF consists of eight subjects of the RF: 1) Murmansk re--‐ gion; 2) seven municipal regions of the Arkhangelsk region; 3) Nenets Autonomous Area; 4) urban district “Vorkuta” of Komi Republic; 5) Yamalo--‐Nenets Autonomous Area; 6) urban district Norilsk, Taimir Dolgano--‐Nenets municipal district and Turukhansky district of Krasnoyarsk Krai; 7) five no--‐ mad camps (districts) of Saha Republic (Yakutia); 8) Chukotski Autonomous Area; 9) and also lands and islands situated in the Arctic Ocean, pointed in CEC USSR Presidium enactment from the 15th of April 1926 and other acts of the USSR11. Unfortunately, in the May decree of a president of Rus--‐ sia is goes on land territories, though AZRF includes also sea of the AO, including White Sea. In such a way undervaluation of sea activity, determination of AZRF borders including special eco--‐ nomic zone (SEZ) and Northern way water area takes place, what has a great geopolitical meaning. Adoption of a law about AZRF in a State Duma of the RF is frozen; there is no public clarity when it will be passed. Bureaucratization of management and solving of Arctic problems just by laws from the up without proper discussion and accounting public opinion negatively influence the activity and liability of people, regions and the whole society itself. Nowadays there is more deficit of ef--‐ fective state management, than the real modernization of management of Russian Arctic, includ--‐ ing Minarctic and sea politics of the Russian Federation.

In June 2014 questions concerning exploration of the Arctic were touched on meeting of the Commission on FEC development strategies and ecological safety (4^th of June 2014 in Astra--‐ khan); meeting on effective and safety exploration of the Arctic (5^th of June 2014 in Saint--‐ Petersburg); meeting on socio--‐economic development of the Arkhangelsk region (9^th of June 2014 in Arkhangelsk), during which attention was concentrated on actual problems of import substitu--‐ tion in oil--‐and--‐gas platforms producing, liquefied--‐gas carriers, tankers and other marine tech--‐ niques for work in the Arctic region.

The more appeared trend of accessible natural raw materials’ deficit in the world escalates struggle for development of Arctic, Antarctic, World Ocean and space (Moon, Mars). It is clear that demands of increased population are impossible to provide inside the national borders. Answer on this challenge is not in decrease of population and their demands, but in systematic transfor--‐ mation of a global economy based on the newest technologies. Russian Arctic can anyway become that resource region, which will stabilize the situation in the world. By this way ESI becomes not only a long--‐term trend for modern and future generations, but also a common important impera--‐ tive for business, arctic and other countries of the world, which use arctic resources.

For a megatrend, named by me, « Great repartition of the Arctic », is more than 100 years. The goal of such a continuous struggle from the beginning of the 20^th century can be formulated as “war for lands, communication, arctic resources”, and the dynamics of this process – as “Great repartition of the Arctic”, which chronologically continuous for several centuries. Stages of this process and other conceptual questions were overviewed by me in 2 monographs (2010, 2013) and in a number of articles. That’s why I’ll not pay attention on it in this article.

I would just like to say that I was always wondered when particular Russian businessmen usually told that there was nothing to divide in Arctic now, that more than 95% of opened re--‐ sources in Arctic are situated in special economic zones of arctic states. Really, after adoption of UN Law of the Sea Convention (1982) many countries of the world rather legitimately put their both territorial waters and 200--‐miles EEZ. But there are still doubts about whether how civilized the continental shelf (ocean floor and its resources) beyond the EEZ for 350 sea miles will be di--‐ vided. That’s for Denmark, Canada and Russia so hardly struggle for, while making applications in the UN Committee on continental shelf and laying claim to the North Pole. Still rules of different bioresources exploitation in the so--‐called UN zone — circumpolar part of the Arctic Ocean (around the pole) — are not defined yet. Struggle for transport communications, Northern Way and North--‐ Western Gate internationalization is not over. In other words, Arctic is considered to be the arena of proneness to conflict, whether mantras we listen, for a long time.

Moreover, USA hasn’t still ratified even UNCLOS (1982), what gives a great opportunity of continuous latent menace. Arguments of opponents of the ratification in the USA are following: 1) practically 3⁄4 of earth lands will be given under control to international organizations; 2) it will limit the freedom of navigation, including limitations of war and intelligence activities; 3) decreas--‐ ing of American companies’ profit, who already explore the shelf; 4) Convention was adopted dur--‐ ing the “Cold war” for countries of the third world and with support of the USSR with the redistri--‐ bution of rights and resources; 5) ratification of the Convention will create a dangerous precedent, according to which, each resource which the national laws don’t occupy, can be announced as a collective privacy or property of all the people in the world (Antarctic, space, internet); 6) USA na--‐ tional legislation, which has a priority over international, has never limited the length of the conti--‐ nental shelf, that’s why ratification of the Convention is not profitable; 7) Corrections to the Con--‐ vention, founded 1994, though took into account American demands, by themselves have an uni--‐ dentified legal status. That can be interpreted as not being a part of the Convention [6].

In National Strategy for the Arctic Region (May 2013) national interests of the USA include freedom of overflight and navigation through the North--‐western Gate and Northern sea route, and it is also directly announced that USA pretensions over continental shelf in the Arctic region can be enlarged upon 600 miles from the Northern shore of Alaska ¹². This is considered to be an example of the direct revision of the UN Law of the Sea Convention.

In the continuous Great repartition of the Arctic gradually are involved not only 8 arctic states, but also China, India, Japan, South Korea and other countries, who don’t have direct outlet to the seas of the Arctic Ocean, but these states are interested in usage of mineral resources and transport communications in the Arctic. The main idea of many countries’ strategies, but not only for arctic “eight”, becomes “war for the resources of the future”, for oil and gas, supplying of their advantages in the Arctic.

Possible ways of geopolitical development of Arctic issue from, firstly, word enounced strategies of arctic states, focused on strengthening of stability and safety in arctic region, while watching it as a zone of peace, dialogue and communication as well as, secondly , multiple--‐vector war activities of the USA, NATO – main enemy of Russia in Arctic. Speaking on conferences and a number of articles of doctor of historical sciences and Colonel General L.G. Ivashov are devoted to the analysis of concrete aspects of such activities. In the article “Geopolitical perspectives of Arctic development” he directly tells that a war tension of a global scale begins in the Arctic North [7, с.17]. In mass media, scientific literature a concept of a decapitation strike (FGS – “fast global strike”) is analyzed with usage of high--‐destruction effect precision weapon (cruisers, jet--‐planned systems, remote--‐piloted vehicles and so on) and systems of untraditional technologies. Within the geopolitical operation of system--‐net approaches the concealed destabilization of six leading seg--‐ ments of the RF national development and defense potential: political, war, economic, social, in--‐ frastructural and informational takes place with the idea to provide “strategic collapse” of the sys--‐ tem of state and war management of the RF in the active struggle period (2014--‐2015) and, when needful, to provide the stage of war time. To the strategic weapons of destruction based on new physical principles, the American military command enlists a patulous within the Russian borders system of 10 plasmatic complexes of geophysical weapons (USA, Canada, Norway, Iceland, Japan), which is made for initiating of seismic and ecological actions. By that a complex of problems is solved, including natural destroying phenomenon, breakdowns and catastrophes, interruption of control systems and others. “This weapon already works against Russia, set by enemies challenges of a peace time are successfully solving”, — notices L.G. Ivashov [7, p. 19].

A creeping latent militarization of the Arctic develops today in a permanent speedup for the real influence and supremacy in circumpolar world, a buildup of military forces here. Demon--‐ stration of a power is actively used — annual military manoeuvres and exercises, expedition of American and Russian A--‐subs to the North Pole, flight operations; creation of new military bases and modern mobile connections, multipurpose space systems in the USA, Norway, introducing of new weapons, modernization of marine fleets.

It is important to point that struggle for the Arctic nowadays — is not a traditional “hot war” with introducing of different types of weapons and people’s deaths. It is mostly usage of in--‐ struments of a soft power in all the possible life directions of the northern societies. An opportuni--‐ ty of the fact that Russian places of hydrocarbons’ exploitation could, for example, become the objects of undetected influence for pressing out of Russia from the region on the ground of non--‐ compliance of ecological standards [5]. As one of the instruments of a soft power in Arctic ethnic tension, spiritual, religious--‐political expansion is used. A dangerous menace of a state safety in the Arctic region possesses a cyber--‐terrorism, usage of other newest technologies for both aggression and for defense.

The first cracks in interruption of continuous relations in the Arctic

Pic. 2. Leona Aglukkaq. URL:

A wave effect of a crisis between Russia and Ukraine leads to formation of political fault line in Arctic Council. A council chair Leona Aglukkaq an--‐ nounced in April 2014, that Canada will not take part in meeting of working groups in Moscow be--‐ cause of quasi Russian illegal occupation of Ukraine and continuous provoke actions in Crimea and other places, but will continue to help the important work of Arctic Council13. Announce was rather antinomic (will — will not). But this step was rather ex--‐ pected according to the modern situation of Canadian sanctions with reference to a number of

Russian diplomatists, business, and stop of all double--‐sided arrangements and not so logical be--‐ cause of importance of the discussed ecological problem. A Moscow meeting was planned as a business and evidently non--‐political arrangement, where questions of firedamp and channel black outburst, their influence on decreasing of capability of snow and ice to reflect sunlight must be discussed. The main topic of Canadian chairmanship in Arctic Council (2013--‐2015) Leona Aglukkaq not long ago named “Development of North for inhabitants good” with a particular focus on de--‐ fendant resource development in Arctic, safety navigation in the Arctic waters and sustainable de--‐ velopment of indigoes peoples of poleward areas. Real steps of Arctic Council chair speak for obvi--‐ ous priority of geopolitics over ecological collaboration.

Right before pointed meeting identical steps were taken by Norway, who in March 2014 delayed the planned visit of a Minister of environment Tine Sundtoft in Moscow. It was the first in over ten years meeting on the level of Ministers of Norwegian--‐Russian commission on environ--‐ ment, where problems of transborder pollution of Norway from the metallurgic fabric in village

Nikel of the Murmansk Region, a planned widening of state natural reserve “Pasvik” and perma--‐ nent conditions of ecological organization must be discussed.

USA, Canada and other arctic states stopped not only ecological, but also other forms of collaboration with Russia, including all planned joint military exercises, friendly visits in sea ports. Ministers of defense of 5 countries of the Northern Europe in Tromso (Norway) overviewed op--‐ portunities of enlargement of politico--‐military collaboration between countries of the Northern Europe14, bringing back to life the so--‐called “mini--‐UN”, useful, according to the words of ex--‐ embassador of the USA in Norway Benson Whitney, to “keep an eye on polar bears and Russians” and also to answer the Arctic challenges15. Debates of entering of Sweden and Finland in the UN again activated. As an argument for is produced that they will be guarded according to the fifth paragraph of the North Atlantic treaty, when attack against one participant is considered to be the attack against all. But who is going to attack against Sweden, Norway, Finland, --‐ is not understand--‐ able? Arctic phobias of the period of the Cold war are operated with the idea of increasing of de--‐ fense spending in the budgets of their countries, as Sweden has already done, announcing of in--‐ creasing of annual defense spending over the next 10 years 16.

A definition of Arctic as the second forefront for Russia was sounded in mass media. “Arctic cracks between opposition and cooperative endeavor, when staying the region of the hardest pressure, which doesn’t finish from the end of the Cold war . This is moreover right because nobody in institutes of regional cooperation has full powers for solving problems of security and problems of prevention of conflicts. In the greatest of those, Arctic Council, it is forbidden to broach these themes” – so characterized the modern situation Romain Mielcarek ¹⁷.

Some famous politicians, when making comparisons with Crimea and terrifying themselves and others, are concerned with the possible same behavior in Arctic, showing their phobias as be--‐ ing a reality. A prime Minister of Iceland Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson, for example, considered Rus--‐ sian actions on Ukraine to make serious problems in collaboration for eight countries in the Arctic

Council. Many parties in Arctic, resulted from the current developments, have serious disquietude and questions, whether it can be the sign of what will happen (something forthcoming)18.

Threatened battlefield rhetoric in this setting are public speaking of Hillary Clinton famous for her aggressive statements according Arctic and Russophobia while she was a USA Secretary of State. The future possible candidate for USA president (2016), who condemned Russia for Crimea, took care of creation of a new Arctic front with Canada to stand against heightened aggression by Russia in the Arctic, — noticed a popular Canadian newspaper the Globe and Mail»19. Argumenta--‐ tion was that has the longest seashore in Arctic and renews military facilities in the region; regular--‐ ly provides military airlifts over Canada and Alaska. Well, “no comments” speaking about the long--‐ est seashore in Arctic. Military facilities – is a usual routine activity specific for many countries. But we must take into account that nowadays Russia has to do in the Arctic not with peculiar countries (USA, Canada) but with the united front of all the countries--‐participants – parties of the NATO.

In a number of announcements nowadays Russia is openly considered to be the NATO op--‐ ponent20. NATO General Secretary Anders vog Rasmussen in the public confirmed on the 5th of May 2014 that Russia became from the partner an opponent of the Alliance, because situation in Ukraine sparked more concern21. Rasmussen by that way called all the countries – NATO parties to increase military budgets. In many states — parties of the agreement, according to his words, mili--‐ tary expenses for the latest few years have fined down 40%, and Russia during that period in--‐ creased a military budget for 30%.

It is important to notice that Arctic management according to the active Arctic Council as a membership club of “Arctic eight”, five of which are enlisted in the NATO, can become dangerous for both Russian State and for its national interests. Analogies are appropriate here. It is well--‐ known, that by sanctions against Russia accepting in spring 2014, USA were encouraged not only by their NATO allies but also all the parties of G--‐7. But in G--‐20 Russia got the support of BRICS. It is evidently that for Russia more acceptable becomes the orientation to creation and functioning of multipolar Arctic G--‐20 taking into account the fact that in G--‐8 our country is situated in all alone by total supremacy of the USA and its NATO allies, in their attempt in international isolation of the Russian Federation.

The acuteness of the problem contains the fact that in the politics of the USA in spring 2014 it began to regenerate the back of the Cold war instruments . According to « The New York Times »²² president Obama and representatives of USA Nation Security Council formulate a new longstand--‐ ing approach concerning Russia which represents the adopted version of Cold war – containment strategy . It was announced by that, that unequivocally that the problem is not in the Ukrainian crisis. Attempts are made fully to isolate Russia by the way of cutting off all economic and political connections, based on consensus against Russia, including in it even China, effectively to make us a pariah state.

Acting before the graduates of military college “West Point” on the 28th of May 2014, USA President Barack Obama publicly announced that his country could attain the international isola--‐ tion of Russia. Because of American leadership the world immediately declaimed Russian actions. Europe and G--‐7 countries together slapped sanctions, NATO strengthened obligations before East--‐ European allies, International Monetary Fund continues to strengthen economics of Ukraine, OSCE showed the world what really happened in unstable Ukrainian regions, — he told.23.

Pic. 3. USA President B. Obama. URL: ‐02/2014--‐06--‐ 02_190221

But visits of V.V. Putin in China and France, other facts, and the main — real weight of the Russian Feder--‐ ation in the world economic and geopolitical relations let us make a conclusion that attempts fully to isolate the country are unsuccessful and collapse.

Evident or latent back to the instruments of Cold war in new historic conditions, to my mind, really sharpen the situation in Arctic for some period of time. A dynamically changeable foreign policy, socio--‐economic situation in the world could achieve new risks and challenges for national interests of Russia, including Arctic, — was noticed on the meet--‐ ing of Safety Council on the 22nd of April 201424.

That’s why it is important for ourselves to answer the question: “ Is it needful for Russia to--‐ day freezing of dialogue connections, collaboration and cooperation in the Arctic?” An answer to this question is evident for many of those, who really estimate the modern situation in Arctic. A permanent Arctic trend in Russia is determined by understanding of national interests as being deliberate demands of state, society and personality. Firstly , most of people in Russia are less in--‐ terested in “the Curtain” from the past, military confrontation and in the rhetoric of the Cold war times. Secondly , our country in the Arctic just doesn’t need alien territories, it is quite sufficient for us the great northern space, which it is important to rebuild according to the modern conditions, to develop infrastructure, to improve quality of population lives, its social identity. Thirdly , Russian State and business actively need international cooperation of strength for Arctic natural resources exploitation, modern technologies, providing our national interests (demands).

Problems of international cooperation in Arctic mustn’t be idealized, papered, but there is also no need in demonstrating them. It is rather evident here the trend of activation of all the peoples and geopolitical activities’ types, aggravation of economic competition. Natural resources and doubtless tourist potential of the Arctic region, its reviving transport marine and air communi--‐ cations not just attract careful attention of a person, business and society but also lead to devel--‐ opment of different projects, dynamic increase of mobility and social activity. This process in--‐ cludes practically all the spheres of people’s interests and activities. It concerns not only science and techniques, geopolitics of Arctic and other countries, but also tourism, journeys, mental--‐ cultural life, social sphere of the northern societies.

2013 before our eyes the process which can be nominally called forming of Arctic multipo--‐ larity model of a modern changing world began to develop. There is a number of public councils, forums and committees in the Arctic region nowadays: the Northern Forum (1992), Council of Barents/Euroarctic region (1993), a Standing committee of Parliamentarian Conference of the Arc--‐ tic region (1994) and many others. Including one or another international state structure in its ac--‐ tivities, they in many cases pursue antithetic goals, affiliated with NATO, USA, UN. Though, and new political actors appear. Compared to Arctic Council, closed and bureaucratized structure, “The Arctic Circle” — opened noncommercial neopolitical organization — functions for already two years. It is a new Arctic field for easement of a dialogue and connecting relationships with also China, India and other countries, who have no say in the matter in the “Arctic Council”.

The mission of “The Arctic Circle” contains the idea of annual providing of forums for the parties concerned for easement of a dialogue, connecting relationships and discussing Arctic prob--‐ lems. The key word in definition of “The Arctic Circle” destination is the word “open”, for all of us. The forum will be the most important place for carrying out Arctic questions dialogue and it will promote the strengthening of a decision--‐making process by the way of collaboration of interna--‐ tional partners in the form of opened meetings and assemblies25. This public global field on Arctic problems, organized on nonprofit basis. Expert centers, business organizations, universities and non--‐governmental associations from the whole world could conduct meetings on “The Arctic Cir--‐ cle” platform, while not losing its institutional independence.

Start of activity of a new global organization was de facto given by the President of Iceland Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson on the 16th of April 2013 during his speech in Washington DC26.

The first assembly of the Arctic Circle 12--‐14th of October 2013 connected more than 1200 high powered parties concerned from 40 countries all the eight Arctic countries and also France,

China, India, Germany, Brazil, Korean Republic, Indonesia, Singapore and others. 20 plenary meet--‐ ings were held during 3 days. These meetings concerned climate changes, dissolution of ice in Arc--‐ tic, energy collaboration, Arctic safety; Arctic of regions versus globalized Arctic, Northern Sea routes: new era in the world navigation; business collaboration, perspectives of investments; ma--‐ rine rights, condition of Alaska, Russia and Arctic, future collaboration in Arctic; perspectives of Arctic tourism; rights of indigoes peoples; the Korean Republic in Arctic… On the public forum of the Arctic business--‐community problems and process of strengthening of business collaboration, developments of management structure were discussed. Panel discussions included economic de--‐ velopment of Arctic, values of business collaboration and the presidency of the Arctic business. Every day sections on absolutely different problems were held. Among organizers there speak dif--‐ ferent people and organizations, also universities. That means that there was a real opportunity to claim the topic and invite people concerned for its discussing. All in all such a business and demo--‐ cratic atmosphere set this forum apart from other seriously organized and bureaucratic business events, when most of participants are considered to be just passive observers.

So public concurrence occurs and a new model of Arctic multipolarity appears. 31st of Oc--‐ tober – 2nd of November in Reykjavik (Iceland) for a second time an annual meeting of the Arctic Circle will take place. Next 2015 it is planned to carry out the business event in Anchorage (Alas--‐ ka). Future meetings in the middle of a year will be held in Greenland and Singapore.

Intercivilizational challenge to the whole society connected with building of multicultural identity of earthlings, at any rate, demands rapprochement of ethnic groups, religions, cultures, also in Arctic, and at the same time it contradicts with demands on identity, regionalization, and also increase of new autonomic peoples’ influence. Moreover, changes of fundamental living and cultural values, ready of people to change their freedom for safety, changes of social types of peo--‐ ple are noticed [2, p.10]. Social idea of gender differences loses its meaning; a devaluation of con--‐ servative, even Christian values takes place. Conflictive by their meaning, these processes contin--‐ ue with great difficulty and costs. In many regions of the world as a source for these conflicts be--‐ come the military nationalism (“the Right Sector” on Kiev Maidan, civil war in Ukraine is the bright example for it), spiritual and religious--‐political expansion. As a long--‐term perspective an im--‐ portance of whole planetary agreements between already exist civilizations and confessions takes place. Such a tendency is impossible to foresee now, but conversely freezing is coming, including Arctic business.

Another global problem becomes the modernization of geopolitical vector of the Russian Federation. A hold course for the East is at any way positive in current situation, but it also has particular risks, when opening a new window of Eurasian opportunities.

Potential opportunities and challenges of Russian vector to China

I marked a question in “China up, Russia down” not coincidentally. It is not excluded that the vector of the nearest geopolitical future after back of Crimea into Russian Federation and visit of V.V. Putin in China, can be currently formulated in such a way “China up, U.S. down”. According to different esti--‐

Pic. 5. V.V. Putin and Xi Jinping. URL: http://s00. yapla--‐ mates, China by years 2015, 2017 or 2019 will be--‐ kal. com/pics/pics_original/1/2/6/74621. Jpg          come the greatest economics in the world. When ad--‐ joining to it unpretentious Russian results (rates of economic growth in Russia are really still low), and other resources we can get global economic, demographic and military potential which leaves behind USA. However, the question is mostly not about such a potential but about geopolitical, cultural--‐civilization connection in Eurasia. Rapprochement of Russian and Chinese civilizations is determined by short--‐sighted USA politics based on exclusiveness, special mission in a changeable world. Regional instability, when using the concepts of analyzed American report, seriously con--‐ verge the Russian borders, increasing by that “Potential for Increased conflict”. NATO, when changing the military potential to the western borders of the RF makes our country to search stra--‐ tegic collaborators in the East to provide our security. In conditions of permanent coercion on our country and applying of different sanctions on our country after back of Crimea in RF, in keeping with classic of conflict management, it appears not only growth of Russians’ cohesion, but also changing of poles in civilized paradigm of international relations and choosing of Eurasian geopo--‐ litical vector.

Answering the sanctions against our country and attempts of its isolation, vector of Russian geopolitics and economics more and more turns to the East. During the visit of V.V. Putin in China it was announced of a new era of overall collaboration and strategic connections; trend for rap--‐ prochement of the Russian Federation and PRC as part of multipolarity was clearly outlined. Russia and China arranged to regulate their foreign policy steps closer, including UNO, SCO, BRICS, APEC,

Conferences on Interaction and Confidence--‐building in Asia, G--‐20 and other structures of interna--‐ tional economic collaboration for formation of just, harmonic and safety world order27.

Bur it is important to find answers and to the question: whether trend for rapprochement with China is in keeping with national interests of Russia in long--‐term perspective or we just have no way out after Crimea? The more probable answer sounds positively: “Yes, in the current situation it is. Politically , taking into account trend of multipolarity, under circumstances of Eurasian concerted policy, including projects “Economic zone of the Silk Road” and “Eurasian Economic Union”, accord--‐ ing to the principles of solidity and collaboration.

Pic.6. Pipe--‐line “Strength of Siberia”: Yakutia – Khabarovsk – Vladivostok = 3200 км; Irkutsk region – Yakutia = 800 km; 61 bln. square meters of gas pro year; 1st turn in 2017.

URL: ‐06--‐19--‐map--‐sila--‐sib--‐

Economically new opportunities are opening : a contract of Gazprom and CNPC is awarded ($400 bln. for 30 years; 38 bln. Cubic meters of gas per year, all in all 1,14 trillion m³; pipe--‐line “Strength of Siberia) and other agreements. In a common announcement of the RF and PRC it is planned to improve conditions for transit of Chinese freights through the net of Russian railways, ports of the Far East and also through the Northern Sea Route.

Together with this it is also important to answer the question: How dangerous is for Russia trend to the East, what potentially in future possible challenges could appear? Together with appear--‐ ing analytics we can point a number of problematic issues:

• 1.    Struggle for communications in Arctic (forecasting large scale appearance of Chinese ice--‐ breakers and carriers on the Northern Sea Route).

• 2.    Contingence of Eurasian integration projects: “Economic zone of the Silk Road” and “Eura--‐ sian Economic Union”?

• 3.    A severe competition at the market of hydrocarbon export to the Asia.

• 4.    Danger of transformation of Russian economics as a raw--‐exports role according to industrial--‐ ly developed China, which include usage of Russian Arctic and the North.

• 5.    Latent assimilation by Chinese of Russian population of the Far East, Siberia, North and later everywhere.

• 6.    Political instability in PRC (D. Travin, SBR, 18.04.2014).

Firstly, Russia at any way expects an absolutely real competition with china when usage of transport communications in Arctic. When giving a priority to high--‐latitude, circumpolar routes, Chinese navigation companies by that way decrease the profitableness of the Northern Sea Route and its importance. This will promote enter to polar route of Chinese ice--‐breakers. Is Russia ready to let Chinese ice--‐breakers to the competitive navigation through traditional routes of the North--‐ ern Sea Route in conditions of cargo carriage from Europe to china and back volume growth?

In common Russia gets some perspective of transformation as a raw--‐exports role of China, which naturally needs no competition as being an industrially developed state. Here we speak not only about Northern Sea Route, but about other spheres of economics and social activities. North of Russia, Arkhangelsk (Belkomur), Arctic marine port Sabetta, Western and Eastern Siberia, Far East, OAO “Gazprom” and “Rosneft”, other Arctic stakeholders are even more oriented on inflow of investments from China.

After creation of Eurasian Economic Union from the 1st of January 2015 the importance of integration processes in Asia complementarity increases on the Eurasian field as well as in Europe. By that fact here appears a problem of searching for ways of possible conjugacy of “Economic zone of the Silk Road” (EZSR) and “Eurasian Economic Union” (EEU). In a common announcement of RF and PRC (20.05.2014) it is underlined that Russia considers initiative of China to be important in forming of “Economic zone of the Silk Road” and highly appreciate ready of Chinese party to take into account Russian interests during its development and realization.

EZSR – is an infrastructure megaproject of transeurasian integration from Pacific to the At--‐ lantic Ocean, creation of free trading zones. Its main function – is fast delivery of goods from Asia to EU. Market of 18 European and Asian countries, 3 billion people = 40% of Earth population28.

Multidimensional innovation model of regional collaboration could help Eurasian countries to widen geo--‐economics space for development by the way of forming of following directions (8 corridors): transport,energetic, trade, informational, science--‐technical, agricultural reclamation, touristic development, safety and political interactions.

And China will in practice take a mild “economic” control under the whole Eurasia from China and Central Asia to Eastern and Western Europe. Just business and no politics in comparison with USA hegemony, neoliberal globalization and American project of Great silk route. A Chinese project is designed to investments and foresees a creation of a common Eurasian space and trans--‐ continental trunk from London to Shanghais including active Channel and Bosporus tunnels [8, V.A. Dergachev].

Pic. 7. URL: ‐

One more, still virtual problem is theoretically connected with climate changes and China population migration to Siberia and the North as a result of appearing chaos. Though, it has practi--‐ cally begun a latent assimilation of Russian population by the Chinese. It is referred to autono--‐ mous Chinese communities, interracial Chinese--‐Russian marriages, acquisition of ground, accom--‐ modation, producing and trading power supply ownership. Migration from China has its ad--‐ vantages, but where are its borders and how will be its consequences in for example 10 years? What it will appear on cultural and living level by strong interrelation of two civilizations – Russian and great Chinese? Here are still no answers.

Because of attempts of a permanent sup--‐plantation of Russian companies from the Euro--‐ pean market, a value of diversification of energy products outlet increases and competition be--‐ tween suppliers of hydrocarbons from different countries of the world escalates [9].

Table 1

European and Asian hydrocarbon markets (2012)

Hydrocarbon markets: Consumptions and supply 2012	Oil, mln. tones	Gas, bln square m
European market (EU, Eastern Europe countries, Turkey)	684,2	576,2
Part of Russian supply on the European market from common consumption in percent	37,4%	32,3 %
Japan, South Korea, China	810,7	300,5
Part of Russian supply on the Asian market from common con--‐ sumption in percent	7,2%	4,8%

Made by: Inozemzev V. Opinion: will Russia be saved by turn to the East. 23.04.2014 URL:

And finally, mass media discuss sustainability in the perspective of politics in People’s Republic China. Authoritarian government can’t last forever and, as usual, it ruins, “turn to the East” is danger--‐ ous — prevents Dmitri Travin, a scientific manager of Centre of modernization researches of European university in Saint--‐Petersburg [10]. We can either agree or disagree this opinion, but the problem takes place, it is current and asks for thorough analysis. It is important to take into account that Chinese population according to 06.07. 2014 is 1 bln. 367 mln. people 29. Great economic and PRC population scales in circle development conditions can cause the same great convulsion of the whole global socie--‐ ty, not excluding Russia and the Arctic region.

Nowadays everything spoken above is just potential opportunities and challenges, hypoth--‐ esis and forecasts. We must not be afraid of anything It is right. But also to forget that we live in conditions of permanent crisis instability, in a rapidly changing world, not always foreseeable will be not right. Measure thrice and cut once — so it is said in a Russian proverb. But nowadays the problem contains that there is sometimes no time for measuring, we must cut then and there. So is the dynamic historic time of a governed chaos where all of us live, in the era of changes in the beginning of the 21st century.

Conclusion

The process of personal international hegemony of the USA as a “common world police--‐ man” and the main protector of “American way and image democracy” is evidently finishing in the world in this way in the nearest future. Change of common geopolitical paradigm in conditions of multipolarity increase, clumsy attempts to isolate Russia and to make it an outlaw also influences the situation in the Arctic region. It is rather understandable that a detailed analysis of the situa--‐ tion, appearing around Arctic because of new geopolitical reboot in a global world society; refor--‐ matting of the whole system; attempts of “united Arctic fronts” and back to instruments of Cold war by the way of Russian inhibition, is important.

A new format of Arctic relations is possible. In a changed situation, connected with the phase of Crimea reversal in geopolitics, whether it is possible to wait for structural interaction, without sanctions, in exploitation of Arctic resources and the activity of the Arctic Council where basically NATO runs the show? To my mind, it is very important to understand which Arctic model of multipolarity is the most appropriate for Russia . The issue remains open. Variants of stakehold--‐ ers interactions in different international structures: AG--‐8, AG--‐20, the Arctic Circle and others are possible.

It cannot go unnoticed that rethinking of national interests as felt--‐need of a society, state and a person in the Russian Arctic, of the whole complex of appearing here problems of manage--‐ ment, socio--‐economic development, marine politics, security providing, interregional integration of AZRF lands becomes current nowadays. In conditions of conflict potential increase and taken trend to the East, some Arctic problems are like to sink down on the back burner. Large--‐scale Arc--‐ tic breakthrough is stuck and lack of resources, including financial, for realization of state pro--‐ grams is not the main reason here. We can notice changes in governing of Russian Arctic on both federal and regional levels. Still problem of effective system of Arctic management foundation with responsible federal authority (Minarctic), who is credentialed and has professional compe--‐ tencies, is current. An urgent necessity of natural competitive advantages strengthening in realiza--‐ tion of marine politics in Arctic is announced in the article S.U.Kozmenko, V.S.Selina and A.A.Chegolkova “Of RF Arctic marine politics” [11] and in other works.

Supplying of permanent Russian presence in Arctic, including islands and the Arctic Ocean waters, in different forms and ways, increase of economics and human capital formation, and also potential of society social cohesion and interregional integration are the top--‐priority aim not only for Russian state but also for the whole society, when remembering by that personal national in--‐ terests, demands of all indigoes peoples of the North (big and small), save of their cultural values. All that has chances to become the key trend of socio--‐economic development of the Russian Fed--‐ eration Arctic zone for years and decades for the future.