Monitoring of intersectoral interaction in the agro-industrial complex on the VEC model

This study investigates the interconnections among diverse sectors within the agro-industrial complex, highlighting crucial elements such as production trends and market price fluctuations for agricultural commodities. The investigation focuses on analyzing time-series datasets encompassing indices related to crop farming, animal husbandry outputs, producer costs, and retail food prices nationwide. These insights are intended to guide strategic decision-making processes regarding forecasting the evolution of the agro-industrial complex at both federal and regional scales. Initial steps involve preprocessing officially published statistics before applying advanced econometric techniques. Specifically, the core methodology relies upon the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), enabling identification of mutual dependencies among variables while incorporating their underlying long-term equilibria. Additionally, Granger causality testing was implemented to clarify potential cause-and-effect linkages. Results indicate a pronounced effect exerted by the livestock segment onto broader agricultural domains, attributable to unique characteristics of Russia's agrarian economy and institutional structures. Recommendations emphasize targeted improvements in agricultural governance systems-both enterprise-specific and regionally administered-to foster sustained, robust expansion within this vital economic domain through flexible yet balanced policies.