National and regional security: a view from the region

National and regional security: a view from the region

This issue of the Journal is published in the run-up to the 9th Session of the Russia-Belarus InterAcademy Council on the Issues of Development of the Union State and the International Research-to-Practice Conference “Integration within the Union State as the main tool for the implementation of Russia and Belarus security strategy” held in Vologda (3 – 5 July). The Conference will bring together the leading scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, employees of scientific and educational institutions, heads and specialists of federal, regional and local authorities, representatives of social institutions and economic entities. The main idea of the Conference is the search for and substantiation of possibilities for enhancing the integration within the Union State, through further development of cooperation in trade, economic, scientific-innovation and socio-humanitarian spheres of Russia and Belarus.

On the eve of this important scientific and practical event, a number of articles touching upon these problems have been published in this issue. According to the results of the Conference, the Journal will present in detail the content of plenary and sectional meetings, the suggestions of scientists and practitioners concerning the development of integration processes of Belarus and Russia and the enhancement of security of the two states on this basis.

Officially, the concept security in modern Russia, was defined in the Federal Law “On security” dated March 5, 1992, as “the state of protection of the vital interests of a person, society and state from internal and external threats”. This provision was substantially expanded in the Russian Federation National Security Strategy up to 2020, adopted in May 2009.

The Strategy identified the main threats to the country’s economic security:

– preservation of export-oriented development model;

– high dependence of the most important sectors of Russia’s economy on external economic conditions;

– low resistance and weak protection of the national financial system;

– lag in the development of advanced technological structures;

– loss of control over national resources;

– uneven development of regions;

– preservation of conditions for corruption and criminalization of economic and financial relations;

– aggravation of global information confrontation.

Other threats were also identified, the overcoming of which is dictated by the rapidly developing globalization of the world economy.

Since then a lot of interesting studies have been published on the assessment of the current state of Russia’s national security, and the ways of its strengthening have been substantiated ¹ .

A major contribution of the national science ito this issue is found in the idea of using the method of extremely critical indicators for studying the Russian society. The extremely critical is the value of the indicator, going beyond the boundaries of which indicates the emergence of a threat to the functioning of economy and life of society due to the violation of the normal course of processes reflected by this indicator. Here it is necessary to distinguish between the indicators and corresponding critical (threshold) values that determine the simple reproduction ability of a system and its development ability.

Going beyond the boundaries of the former means that the system loses its self-preservation ability – there is a threat of its destruction or transition into a qualitatively new state. Going beyond the boundaries of the latter reflects the loss of competitiveness by the system, resulting in the threat of its subordination or absorption by another socio-economic system.

The recent works of RAS Academician S.Yu. Glazyev and Professor V.V. Lokosov show that the Russian society have been for a long time living in the conditions of extremely critical state according to many fundamental indicators of social and economic processes, balancing on the verge of collapse ² .

In this conditions, the Russian government realizes the need to enhance the country’s security. Essentially, the Decrees adopted on May 7, 2012 by President V.V. Putin (immediately after his inauguration), which are aimed at the radical acceleration of the country’s economic and social development, represent a working programme on ensuring its security.

But of greater importance is the fact that V.V. Putin intends to implement the transformation strategy that he has defined, and to achieve the goals set in the Decrees by 2018.

This was clearly shown at the meeting held May 7, 2013, which was devoted to the progress in the execution of the Decrees, the meeting was attended by the members of the Cabinet of Ministers, Presidential Administration, Plenipotentiary Representatives of the Head of State in the federal districts.

The President particularly pointed out the necessity of consistent solution of issues concerning long-term national economic and social policy, development of the Armed Forces, implementation of the foreign policy, demographic policy. V.V. Putin noted: “Nevertheless, I am confident that the objectives we have set are absolutely realistic despite all the current problems and challenges. We must not use the complex, objective circumstances as an excuse. We must carry out all the measures we have planned.”3

Modern Russia has developed comprador capitalism, when a large part of the national bourgeoisie and bureaucracy use the revenues obtained in the country for the development and accumulation of capital abroad. The attempts of the government to change it by means of motivation of business have failed.

Evaluating the situation, S.Yu. Glazyev points out: “All together, this is largely the result of uniting the corrupt part of officials and monopolists... the Government should define targets and conditions for economic development, and business – to participate in their formulation and take responsibility for their implementation. We, on the contrary, have the following situation: business often sets tasks, and government officials perform them” ⁴ .

The federal level of power can and should provide protection mainly from the most important and biggest threats. The population in their daily life faces a much greater range of threats, many of which are local in their character. The solution of such problems is carried out by local authorities. At the same time, the state authorities of the RF subjects can prevent and eliminate the consequences of local threats most efficiently.

In our opinion, for considering the specific features of ensuring security in the regions, it is necessary to develop a special system of parameters related to the specifics of a particular territory. This requires a special study of the security performance of the regions, which should be linked with the overall scheme of analysis of indicators that are used at the federal and sectoral levels. This system should also be combined with the existing system of statistics and forecasting, accompanied by the regular monitoring and forecast of factors influencing the level of threats to regional security.

A major threat to the regional security in recent years consists in the crisis of the regional budgets. By the end of 2012, only 16 regions have been left that are donors to the federal budget. In other regions there is a continuous growth of public debt.

The size of public debt of the RF subjects increased to 30% in relation to the own revenues (against 24% at the beginning of the year). The number of regions that have debt load over 50%, has increased during the year from 15 to 25.

Why is the crisis of the regional finances aggravating significantly? One of the serious factors, in our opinion, is a very liberal financial and economic policy conducted by the Government of the Russian Federation, which is aimed at regarding the private interests of the biggest oligarchic structures, power elites and service bureaucracies. The report of the RF Ministry of Economic Development “Results of activity of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation in 2012 and objectives for the year 2013”, in our opinion, largely confirms this fact, as it dwells on imaginary successes and declares positive expectations.

How does the leading Ministry of the Government of the Russian Federation assess the results of its work? There is no clear answer to this question in the report, there is no analysis of the current socio-economic reality, there is no fair assessment of what has been done, on the basis of which we could speak about the professional level of the Ministry’s leadership and the effectiveness of its economic policy. Instead, the content of the report was reduced to the description of individual actions of the office, and, judging by them, it turns out that the Russian economy and social sphere are on the right way, and the Ministry has even more ambitious plans for the future that are in no way linked with the real situation in the economy.

The 2012 results indicate the absence of obvious success, breakthrough actions that would have led the country to economic growth. A decrease is evident in the dynamics of the key indicators: gross domestic product – from 4.3% in 2011 to 3.4% in 2012; industrial production – from 4.7% to 2.6%, respectively; investments in fixed capital – from 10.8% to 6.6%.

Sustainable crisis trends are continuing in 2013 as well. The stagnation of the economy became the reason for the decrease in the forecast GDP growth in 2013 from 3.6% to 2.4%. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the country received 400 billion rubles less in the first three months of the current year as a result of a zero GDP growth.

Consolidated groups: advantages for big business, drawbacks for the budget

According to experts, preservation of the adverse institutional business climate is the main internal deterrent to the improvement of economic indicators ⁵ .

It’s not a coincidence, that a significant part of the report by the Ministry of Economic Development is devoted to this issue. In this case, speaking about support to business, the officials focus on targeted improvement of special taxation schemes, on the provision of certain tax benefits, investment loans; and they overlook the general negative trends of the state of business climate in the country.

Can we consider the situation in this field to be improved, if the business community negatively evaluates the existing business climate of the country? Here are just some of the examples in this respect, contained in the report of the Leningrad Chamber of Commerce and Industry6 .

According to the survey of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, 41% of the companies’ managers in 2012 didn’t notice any changes in the business climate, and those, who think that it has deteriorated, are three times more than those who think the opposite.

The “economic sentiment index”, made by the National Research University Higher School of Economics according to the survey of 20.5 thousand representatives of mediumsized business, by the end of 2012 dropped to the lowest level for the last half-year. Almost half of domestic businessmen expect to transfer their business abroad. By the level of self-esteem of their readiness to entrepreneurship (only 2% of the population express entrepreneurial intentions) Russia, with a significant margin, occupies the last place among all the European countries.

The state’s attempts to change the institutional environment for entrepreneurship, small and medium-sized first of all, have failed. It can’t be said about the representatives of big business. Contrary to the principles of parity and competitive development in the economy, most of the legislative initiatives are directed on promoting the interests of a limited number of the largest companies, many of which are under foreign jurisdiction.

A convincing example of this is found in the introduction from January 1, 2012 of the institute of consolidated groups of taxpayers (CGT) ⁷ that has a narrow focus due to the establishment of strict criteria of formation.

Table 1. Profit tax revenues, billion rubles

Subject	January – March 2012	January – March 2013	Changes
			Billion rubles	%
Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug	16.8	8.8	-8.0	-47.6
Tyumen Oblast	29.1	16.6	-12.5	-43.0
Belgorod Oblast	5.6	3.4	-2.2	-39.3
Kemerovo Oblast	6.3	4.2	-2.1	-33.3
Vologda Oblast	2.6	1.8	-0.6	-30.8
Russian Federation	502.4	474.7	-27.7	-5.5

Sources: Federal Treasury; ISEDT RAS calculations.

Access to consolidation will be granted only to those organizations, which have the annual amount of federal taxes of more than 10 billion rubles, the annual revenue of not less than 100 billion rubles and the amount of assets according to the balance exceeding 300 billion rubles.

In accordance with these criteria, small and medium enterprises will not be able to take advantage of the new taxation scheme, this fact places them in unfavourable conditions in comparison to major taxpayers (according to the Expert RA, in 2011, only 71 out of the 400 largest Russian companies had their annual revenues exceeding 100 billion rubles ⁸ ).

CGT introduces a new taxation scheme, which excludes control over transfer pricing and allows the offsetting of losses of companies within the group. Since the legislation does not stipulate any restrictions on the size of the losses taken into account when calculating the tax base, it can be assumed that the creation of CGT creation will lead only to the reduction in taxable income and aggregate profit tax paid by all group members. At the same time, the CGT shall comply with the right, set by the tax legislation, to reduce the tax base by the amount of losses for the previous accounting periods ⁹ .

Benefits for the subjects of CGT are obvious. As for the budget, its interest is not so clear. The first results of CGT functioning prove this conclusion.

According to the Federal Tax Service, as a result of creating CGT, regional budgets didn’t receive 8 billion rubles of profit tax in 2012 ¹⁰ . The reduction in tax revenues affected primarily the regions, where the budget is formed at the expense of oil and gas industry and metallurgy, which are the main sources of CGT as well ¹¹ (tab. 1) .

The introduction of consolidated taxation will lead to the fact that the country’s budget system will have shortfall in income, this is indicated by the decreasing dynamics of financial performance of the budget-forming companies that created CGT (tab. 2) . It should be noted that all of these companies are the key stimulators of tax revenues in the budget of the country.

Thus, the current tax policy, primarily with regard to large businesses, doesn’t promote the growth of budget revenues. The results of ISEDT RAS research on evaluating the situation at basic iron and steel works show a decrease in their participation in the formation

Table 2. Financial indicators and tax on profits of companies that switched to consolidated taxation, million rubles

Indicators 1 quarter of 2012 1 quarter of 2013 Dynamics, % ОАO Severstal Profit on sales 3551.7 2391.5 -32.7 Pre-tax profit 5474.9 -735.1 X Current profit tax 1131.6 0.053 -100.0 OJSC Gazprom Profit on sales 322587.3 305169.1 -5.4 Pre-tax profit 377563.4 258292.9 -31.6 Current profit tax 84148.6 16147.2 -80.8 OJSC NLMK Profit on sales 2293.5 319.5 -86.1 Pre-tax profit 4597.6 -185.9 X Current profit tax 1150.6 266.4 -76.8 OJSC Rosneft Profit on sales 90811.9 44981.4 -50.5 Pre-tax profit 103665.7 28936.3 -72.1 Current profit tax 23878.4 7301.1 -69.4 Sources: Companies’ income statements for the first quarter of 2013; ISEDT RAS calculations. of revenues of the budgets of all levels, mainly through the use of numerous offshore schemes to export the significant volumes of profit. So, for 2000 – 2012 tax incomes in the RF budget system from Cherepovets Steel Mill reduced from 14% to 3.4%, NLMK – from 20% to 5.7%, Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works – from 12% to 3% (tab. 3).

It seems that the new scheme of taxation consolidation, which the authors of the report consider to be a tool for creating “favourable conditions for taxpayers to fulfil their obligations” ¹² , provides additional opportunities for optimization of tax base through the balancing of profits and losses.

On the contrary, the results of regional budgets execution for 2012 and for January – March 2013 indicate that the situation concerning the receipt of tax payments have aggravated, which will require compensatory transfers from the federal budget, and from regional authorities – the search for new revenue sources for financing social obligations.

Herewith, the recognition of the institute of CGT as one of the main measures “aimed at creating an efficient and stable tax system, which provides fiscal stability” ¹³ raises obvious doubts.

Tax incentives for the rich

Another area improving the business environment, according to the authors of the report, is granting exemptions from VAT payment with regard to the services rendered on the securities market. The list of services not subject to taxation is rather extensive (services provided by brokers, dealers, management companies of investment, unit investment funds, etc). But do financial intermediaries really need fiscal loosening?

In 2010 – 2012 the share of subjects of financial activity in the total revenues of organizations was 16%, and their share in the total volume of tax receipts was 4%. Ranking third in terms of revenue, financial intermediaries have minimum tax burden compared with manufacturing enterprises (tab. 4) .

Table 3. Tax payments of metallurgical complexes to the RF budgetary system in 2000 – 2012, million rubles

Indicators	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
ChMK
Taxes, total	8219	5582	4860	9081	17498	16747	14450	23633	26999	3990	9186	11792	7659
In % to profit	13.9	10.7	8.0	11.1	13.4	11.7	9.0	12.2	11.1	2.8	4.4	4.6	3.4
NLMK
Taxes, total	7694	4237	5827	9117	16451	13987	19295	15557	20703	6809	11529	14888	13642
In % to profit	19.9	11.4	10.9	12.2	13.0	11.7	13.8	10.0	10.2	5.3	6.4	6.7	5.7
MMK
Taxes, total	7272	3897	4487	9565	12071	14367	16043	15315	17400	5082	10243	15988	7283
In % to profit	12.1	7.4	7.4	10.8	9.0	9.8	9.9	8.0	7.7	3.7	5.1	6.5	3.0
Sources: Annual statements of Severstal, NLMK, MMK, ISEDT RAS calculations.

Table 4. Revenues and tax receipts from financial intermediaries and manufacturing productions in 2010 – 2011

Indicators	Financial intermediaries				Manufacturing enterprises
	2010		2011		2010		2011
	billion rubles	share, %	billion rubles	share, %	billion rubles	share, %	billion rubles	share, %
Revenues	12702.9	16.3	14706.1	15.5	17553.8	22.6	22236.2	23.4
Tax receipts	316.9	4.1	382.2	3.9	1342.0	17.5	1695.7	17.4
Including VAT	32.2	2.3	30.1	1.6	239.6	17.3	320.6	17.4
Tax burden, %	2.5		2.6		7.6		7.6

Sources: Rosstat; Federal Tax Service; ISEDT RAS calculations.

After financial intermediaries have been granted VAT exemption, the losses of the federal budget exceed 30 billion roubles, which is more than the expenditures on water, forestry, environmental protection, landscaping, many types of educational activities, etc.

Certainly, tax stimulation of higher-yielding subjects generates not only enormous lost profits in the fiscal crisis conditions, but also the structural disproportions of the Russian economy, limiting inflow of investments in the manufacturing production sphere.

Half-hearted optimization ¹⁴

Some of the actions of the Ministry of Economic Development certainly deserve approval: in particular, it is the abolition of privileges on property tax for subjects of natural monopolies: public railways, main pipelines and power lines15. However, here the legislation envisages some limitations in the form of the transitional period during which the reduced tax rates will be in effect; therefore, regional budgets will experience a noticeable increase only in 2017.

According to our calculations, as a result of complete cancellation of privileges, additional revenues from corporate property tax into the regions’ budgets could increase by 33.4% and amount to 156.3 billion rubles (tab. 5) .

The issue concerning the complete abolition of property tax privileges and land tax privileges remains unsettled. The total amount of remaining preferences is about 60 billion rubles.

Table 5. Calculation of additional revenues from corporate property tax in the consolidated budgets of the RF subjects as a result of cancellation of tax privileges, billion rubles

Indicators	2011
Privileges provided*	156.3
Tax base (provisionally, proceeding from the sum of privileges)	7104.5
Possible receipts taking into account partial cancellation of privileges:
2013 – rate 0.4%	28.4
2014 – rate 0.7%	49.7
2015 – rate 1.0%	71.0
2016 – rate 1.3%	92.4
2017 – rate 1.6%	113.7
2018 – rate 1.9%	135.0
2019 – 2.2% (complete cancellation of privileges)	156.3
Actual revenues from corporate property tax from all payers	467.6
* to the following organizations: public railways, main pipelines and power lines. Source: ISEDT RAS calculations according to the report f No. 5-NIO FTS RF and the Federal Treasury.

There is no deoffshorization of the economy

Unfortunately, the report didn’t touch upon the deoffshorization of Russia’s economy. The calls of the country’s political leadership to stop withdrawing money abroad and return them to Russia are not followed by concrete actions and remain empty words.

The results of ISEDT RAS research devoted to analysing production and financial activities of leading transnational metallurgical corporations owned by offshore companies showed that the lion’s share of the profit received by Russian iron and steel works is not directed toward the development, but is reserved for paying large dividends to the owners of these enterprises (tab. 6) and transferring to offshores through the mechanisms of transfer pricing and through affiliated companies ¹⁶ .

According to the Central Bank, the annual export of money from the country is 2 trillion rubles more than its import. For the first quarter of 2013 over 800 billion roubles have been already taken abroad. If we add these resources to the amount of those lost due to the decline in economic growth rate, then the total amount of financial losses will be 1.2 trillion rubles.

Academician S.Yu. Glazyev concludes: “This cannot continue any longer. Any export of capital will change to its accumulation in the country that will provide a foundation for modernization and development of the economy, otherwise Russia will face irreversible colonization and remain at the raw material periphery of the world economy. The second scenario will result in the significant deterioration of Russia’s ruling elite, both due to the escalation of social tension, caused by the decline in the population’s standard of living, and due to the expropriation of a significant part of capital accumulated in offshores” ¹⁷ .

However, the outflow of almost all the assets overseas, which ended in the last decade, shows the failure of the authorities to resist this negative process. The report by the Ministry of Economic Development is another proof in this respect. Introduction of the institute of CGT, which reveals additional ways of taxation minimization, as well as the provision of tax preferences for the subjects of the financial

Table 6. Received dividends and the fortune of the owners of metallurgical corporations in 2006 – 2011, billion rubles

Indicators 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 OAO Severstal Retained profits 122.9 144.7 148.8 150.2 106.2 90.1 Accrued dividends 8.4 15.9 25.5 0 5.6 12.7 Fortune of the owner 318.6 601.5 126.3 299.4 563.9 492.7 OJSC MMK Retained profits 62.6 105.7 105.7 129.5 149.5 144.3 Accrued dividends 29.2 9.2 3.7 3.6 3.2 0 Fortune of the owner 239.6 390.8 73.5 296.4 341.4 180.3 OJSC NLMK Retained profits 148.6 117.2 221.9 246.6 274.0 293.1 Accrued dividends 15.0 15.2 10.1 1.1 9.3 10.3 Fortune of the owner 397.6 586.7 152.8 477.8 731.5 512.0 Sources: reports of metallurgical corporations; Forbes magazine. sector, transferring their money into low-tax jurisdictions18, indicates the lack of logic in the declared anti-offshore policy.

Summing up the assessment of the report by the Ministry of Economic Development, it is necessary to note that no significant measures aimed at the development of the economy and revenue potential of the budget were adopted at the federal level in 2012. Traditional methods of fiscal system management through the continuous introduction of amendments into the existing legislation are unable to solve the systemic problems anymore. In this regard, it is necessary to take measures for the significant adjustment of economic policy; the key and priority measures should be aimed at overcoming the offshore nature of the Russian economy.

And that will be a serious step in the enhancement of national and regional security.

j

As in the previous issues, we publish the results of the recent public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society*.

The following tables show the dynamics of some parameters of social well-being and sociopolitical sentiments in the Vologda Oblast for the last 6 surveys (the period from August 2012 to June 2013) in comparison with the data for 2012.

18 Out of 25.8 billion US dollars exported from the Russian Federation in the first quarter of 2013, banks account for 24 billion.

Estimation of power activity (How do you assess the current activity of..?)

Indicator	2007	2011	2012	June 2012	Aug. 2012	Oct. 2012	Dec. 2012	Feb. 2013	Apr. 2013	June 2013	Average for the last 6 surveys	Dynamics (+/-), last 6 surveys in comparison to 2012
RF President
Approve	75.3	58.7	51.7	54.5	53.7	50.9	53.3	55.5	55.5	54.3	53.9	+2
Do not approve	11.5	25.6	32.6	28.9	31.1	32.1	34.6	29.2	31.5	29.3	31.3	-1
Chairman of the RF Government
Approve	-	59.3	49.6	49.5	48.5	47.1	48.3	47.9	48.5	46.2	47.8	-2
Do not approve	-	24.7	33.3	31.5	34.5	32.8	35.9	34.4	35.7	33.2	34.4	+1
Governor
Approve	55.8	45.7	41.9	44.7	45.3	43.6	42.5	43.0	44.4	44.3	43.9	+2
Do not approve	22.2	30.5	33.3	31.8	32.7	33.7	35.4	33.8	34.9	31.9	33.7	0

What party expresses your interests? (% of the number of respondents)

Party	2007	Election to the RF State Duma 2007, fact	2011	Election to the RF State Duma 2011, fact	2012	June 2012	Aug. 2012	Oct. 2012	Dec. 2012	Feb. 2013	Apr. 2013	June 2013	Average for the last 6 surveys	Dynamics (+/-), last 6 surveys in comparison to 2012
United Russia	30.2	60.5	31.1	33.4	29.1	31.9	31.4	26.6	30.4	30.5	28.5	31.3	29.8	+1
KPRF	7.0	9.3	10.3	16.8	10.6	10.0	9.5	10.4	12.2	9.7	11.0	11.3	10.7	0
LDPR	7.5	11.0	7.8	15.4	7.8	7.7	6.7	6.8	7.2	6.3	7.1	6.6	6.8	-1
Just Russia	7.8	8.8	5.6	27.2	6.6	4.6	5.6	5.5	5.5	5.3	5.1	4.7	5.3	-1
Other	1.8	–	1.9	–	2.1	2.8	2.3	2.4	3.5	3.5	3.4	2.0	2.9	+1
No party	17.8	–	29.4	–	31.3	31.5	33.2	36.1	32.5	35.3	37.1	31.7	34.3	+3
It’s difficult to answer	21.2	–	13.2	–	11.7	11.6	11.1	12.3	8.7	9.3	7.8	12.3	10.3	-1

Estimation of social condition (% of the number of respondents)

Indicator	2007	2011	2012	June 2012	Aug. 2012	Oct. 2012	Dec. 2012	Feb. 2013	Apr. 2013	June 2013	Average for the last 6 surveys	Dynamics (+/-), last 6 surveys in comparison to 2012
Mood
Usual condition, good mood	63.6	63.1	67.3	69.0	71.3	69.0	68.0	66.6	68.6	66.4	68.3	+1
Feeling stress, anger, fear, depression	27.8	28.9	27.0	23.4	23.3	25.5	26.5	30.5	26.0	25.9	26.3	-1
Stock of patience
Everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it	74.1	74.8	76.6	77.3	73.2	77.5	79.9	75.5	77.9	77.8	77.0	0
It’s impossible to bear such plight	13.6	15.3	15.8	13.6	17.0	15.6	13.7	16.1	16.5	13.7	15.4	0
Social self-definition
The share of people who consider themselves to be poor and extremely poor	42.4	44.3	44.5	45.0	44.2	44.1	47.0	45.9	48.2	48.3	46.3	+2
The share of people who consider themselves to have average income	48.2	43.1	44.7	45.3	43.4	44.7	43.4	44.3	42.6	41.9	43.4	-1
Consumer Sentiment Index
Index value, points	105.9	89.6	91.5	93.4	92.3	91.7	91.7	92.3	90.4	89.8	91.4	0

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