Irregular dynamics in the agent-based migration model

The article is devoted to modeling the dynamics of migration at the regional level. In the context of the transition to a post-industrial society, population migration becomes more dynamic, which requires improving approaches to its forecasting and makes significant the study of personal strategies for choosing the time of migration and the host region by agents. Different strategies of agents lead to the emergence of migrant strata with dynamically changing number, unevenly distributed among the receiving regions. As a result, it can observed nonlinear fluctuations in the number of migrants, for the study of which simulation modeling tools are relevant. This research is devoted to the study of the migration processes complex dynamics by the method of agent-based modeling. The simulation is based on the assumption that a migrant, when choosing a region, follows a strategy, characteristic of his age group, which in the long end directly affects the distribution of the number of migrants of various cohorts and the total number of migrants in the region. At this, the strategy choice is determined by socio-economic characteristics of the regions: different levels of economic, social and environmental attractiveness. The authors hypothesized that different strategies of migration behavior can lead to complex migration dynamics. To test the hypothesis, the authors built a basic agent-based model of migration for three regions, which takes into account various strategies of agents' migration behavior, including the choice of a region with the highest economic, social or environmental level of attractiveness. The result of numerical experiments shows that a combination of various strategies for choosing a region with a change in the age structure of migrants leads to periodic and complex regimes of migration dynamics. The authors have found the conditions under which complex dynamics in the model occurs in the short - and medium-term periods.