On the phenomenon of the employment growth in the North Caucasus regions

In the regions of the North Caucasian Federal District, where chronic unemployment has been the main cause of social tension, national conflict potential and high migration of the population over the past thirty years, a rather paradoxical phenomenon of employment growth has emerged. In the context of the new military-political, foreign economic and socio-economic reality it has come as a surprise even for the most reputable Russian experts. Based on the data of employment operational monitoring, the results of a statistical analysis of the dynamics of unemployment and the aggregate workforce potential, as well as predictive analytics, the article shows the reasons for the sharp drop in the level of registered unemployment. These include an unprecedented increase in mortality since the end of World War II, reduction in labor force due to the mobilization of the young male population for participation in a special military operation in Ukraine, and overall negative migration, including of those not willing to participate in the aforementioned operation. A forecast is made for the preservation of inelastic demand in the labor market in the short term.