On the possibility of forecasting the indicators of oil fields development of the Komi Republic with use of time series

The possibility of use of time series for the analysis of indicators of oil fields development is considered. One of the main tasks of studying the time series is to reveal the basic tendency in change of time series level and on this basis to foresee behavior of the time series in the future. Forecasting by this method requires only knowledge of behavior of the investigated value in the past. Such data is available at production, they are rather exact and have been accumulated throughout a long period of time. The following indicators were analyzed: annual oil production, annual liquid extraction, watering, hours worked, oil output during development of the Kyrtayelsky field of the Komi Republic since 1988 to 2012 (24 years). It is shown that this technique allows to predict values of the investigated indicators with adequate accuracy.