On the use of fuzzy calculations to solve the problem of uncertainty in the evaluation of the efficiency of technological innovations at an enterprise

The article is devoted to the development of the methodology for assessing the efficiency of innovations as a criterion for making decisions in the management of enterprise development in the context of uncertainty and unclear information. A methodological approach to assessing the efficiency of technological innovations (TI) is proposed, which is based on a systematic understanding of the efficiency and use of the apparatus of the fuzzy sets theory. The proposed approach is based on the principle of representing the target result of innovation in the form of a vector of three parameters (target effect, cost, and term of a TI project), and comparing the required and expected values of these parameters through a fuzzy logical conclusion. The results of practical application of the developed methodological approach are presented; the results of the evaluation of TI efficiency through the methods of fuzzy calculations and their verification showed sufficient level of validity and reliability. Based on the theoretical-and-methodological and practice-oriented research results presented in the article, the tasks were set on developing the proposed approach and the methods used within its framework, as well as the scope of its use was formulated: construction of conceptual simulation models in management of TI at the pre-investment stage of the life cycle.