Investigation of the modern demographic crisis in Russia: approaches and estimates

The author shows that at present the crisis emerges in the world in two main forms: on the one hand, in the rapid growth of population (population explosion) in the developing countries, and on the other hand, in depopulation and ageing of population in economically developed countries. The author specifies that the second form, threatening the drastic population decline and negative qualitative changes in its structure, is characteristic for Russia. This fact is proved out by the specialists’ forecasts due to which population decline in Russia in the next few decadeswill continue and its population will have reduced from the current 143.3 to 131.9 million people by 2030. The article presents the existing approaches to such definitions as “demographic crisis” and “depopulation”, on the ground of which the author makes a conclusion that the depopulation process is just one of the numerous forms of the modern demographic crisis. Analyzing the peculiarities of the former demographic crisis of the 1990s, the author showed that it emerged mostly in negative quantitative changes, whereas the modern crisis is expressed in deep qualitative transformations affecting different structures of population. As part of the investigation, different theoretical and methodological approaches to the study of demographic processes are analyzed. It is considered that the leading and more substantiated social and demographic conception in the scientific sphere is the theory of demographic transition. However, the author reveals the restrictions in it that do not allow to explain the reasons of appearing the modern demographic crisis in Russia and some of its manifestations to the full extent. The author concludes that studying the demographic development, it is more rational to use complex multiparadigm approach.