Generalized assessment of the seasonal factor in the study of the dynamics of vat in Russia

The article is devoted to the assessment of the seasonal factor in studying the dynamics of the VAT of Russia. Monthly dynamics of the VAT tax burden from 2011 to 2018 the described trend equation with the calculation of determination coefficients and verification of parameters according to the Student t-criterion for statistical significance. Attention is focused on the fact that seasonality has a greater effect on the dynamics of VAT than the trend. VAT is forecasted for December 2018, considering the seasonal components included in the model as a separate factor, the forecast error is 9.4%, which indicates a good quality of the constructed model.