Justification of capital investments based on the assessment of long-term business losses and the state budget from the external factors impact

The article focuses on the problem of stabilization of the enterprise’s main activity into the manufacturing sector in conditions of international instability. The paper aims to develop a methodology for assessing the expediency of investments in the creation of new industries from existing enterprises, based on a comparison with potential economic losses caused by the negative external economic factors impact associated with the imported supplies availability. The authors of the article tested the hypothesis about the possibility of forecasting long-term business losses from the impact of these factors on the amount of profit before taxation, as well as long-term losses of the state budget in the form of a decrease in income tax and value added tax. The study employed economic and mathematical methods to deduce the direct factor dependence of target indicators on the values characterizing the analyzed enterprise’s main activity using the existing theory of financial management, as well as supplementing it with new, necessary coefficients. The conducted research resulted in obtaining the tools for forecasting business and state budget losses from the negative foreign economic factors impact on the state of manufacturing industries both in the short and long term. Based on the assessment of losses in the long term, the instrument has been obtained to justify investments by interested enterprises in the creation of a new industrial complex, as well as investments from the state budget, in case the investment capital of production associations is insufficient. The result of the work can be determined by the proposed consequent set of tools for justifying investment activity in the industrial sector to prevent the existing risks of impact on the socio-economic situation of production-oriented regions.