Fostering demographic transition through education: Urban and rural populations in post-Soviet Russia

Education is one of the most important factors determining the demographic transition to an equilibrium state of low fertility. Demographic transition is expressed in the tendency for demographic indicators to converge globally. This is often realized as a sequence of local equilibria, when countries and regions form convergence clubs. The study used an ordered logistic model and materials from the 1989 and 2020 censuses to estimate the influence of the initial level of education and its growth rate on the formation of regional age-specific fertility convergence clubs of urban and rural populations of post-Soviet Russia. The study confirmed the significant role of education in the demographic transition for urban and rural populations in the age groups of 15–19 and 20–24 years. The influence of education indicators on the formation of regional age-specific fertility convergence clubs is more pronounced and stable than that of factors of matrimonial behavior, ethnic composition, and gender and age structure of the population. Marginal effects of education indicators on the likelihood of regions achieving a local equilibrium in terms of age-specific fertility were assessed. It is shown that the level of education in 1989 and the rate of its growth by 2020 had a significant impact on the formation of regional age-specific fertility convergence clubs of urban and rural populations in post-Soviet Russia. Due to this impact, regions exited high-fertility clubs and anchored in low-fertility clubs.