Assessment of the security of socio-economic development of regions of the Russian Federation (based on the example of the Volgograd region)

The article studies the state of security of socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Federation in modern conditions. The key indicators and threshold values of the main indicators (average annual growth rates of GRP, investment in fixed capital, unemployment rate, digitalization level, inflation rate, import substitution, etc.) characterizing sustainable and safe development of both individual regions and the country as a whole are studied. A classification is carried out by structural groups of mesoeconomic factors (economic factor, demographic factor, social factor, material well-being factor, digital development factor) responsible for a comprehensive characteristic of the safe development of the region (and influencing it) on the basis of the proposed integral index of safe development; its characteristics are calculated for the Volgograd region. Based on the scatter diagram, the degree of discrepancy between the blocks is shown, which indicates the uneven development of the territory under study and helps to identify a list of problems in each of them and develop appropriate directions for their resolution within the economic and institutional foundations of their functioning as a whole. The proposed methodology can be applied to model a similar analysis for all subjects of the country as a whole in order to identify their differentiation and the possibility of approximating the model at various levels of management, taking into account clarifications and additions.