Evaluation of crisis resistance of the enterprise with weak dynamics with use of fuzzy logic

The work explores the activities of an enterprise with weak dynamics in a crisis period. The high vulnerability of such enterprises due to the peculiarities of the production process is justified and the need to assess their crisis resistance is indicated. The paper proposes the use of the probability of successfully overcoming the crisis as a quantitative assessment of the crisis resistance of an enterprise with weak dynamics. This assessment is based on the application of the classical expert system. The knowledge base of this expert system is a set of predicate rules containing information about the crisis of 2008-10. The work uses predicate rules, which consist of two premises and one conclusion. The first premise is associated with an integral indicator of the non-dynamism of the enterprise, which is a quantitative assessment of the degree of its non-dynamism and reflects all the main aspects of its production and economic activity. The second premise determines the number of employees. The entire knowledge base is transformed into a fuzzy linguistic variable corresponding to the states of the input variables. It is assumed that each of the input variables can take three different values. Thus, any number of predicate rules will be equivalent to nine “averaged” rules. As a solver of the expert system, the well-known Mamdani algorithm was used, which allows one to determine the degree of truth of each premise of each rule, the cutoff level of each rule, and apply the cutoff levels to the membership functions of the variable output, using the summation operation to obtain the integral membership function of the variable output. This function will correspond to the set values of the input variables. Next, the transition to clarity is made on the basis of the integral membership function of the variable output. When bringing to clarity, the centroid method was used. The results obtained in this work can be used to forecast crisis resistance of enterprises with weak dynamics in order to develop a strategy for its improvement.