Assessment of the preferred selection of cremated human remains: analysis in the conditions of uncertainty

As a rule, when examining cremations, only some remains can be identified whereas the total weight of fragments and specific parts of the skeleton has high variability and almost in all cases is less than would be expected based on observations in crematoria. This study is aimed to develop a method for assessing probability of the selective approach to collection of cremated remains for subsequent burial in a grave. Since initial weight of specific cremated bodies is unknown, bone fragments are of different size, and the bones continue to disintegrate while the number of elements in the general population and the sample cannot be strictly determined, accurate estimation of probability is not possible. Still, we can attempt to make calculations for a certain preset range of values. The most reliable results can be obtained through analysis of skull bones since their expected share of identified fragments against the total weight of the skeleton is relatively high (13-20 %) and smaller fragments can be rather easily identified. The paper offers a model for rough estimation of random variation in the share of skull bones for the samples of different size based on the hypogeometric probability formula.