Assessment of socio-economic risks by method of extremely critical (threshold) indicators
Автор: Lokosov Vyacheslav V.
Журнал: Народонаселение @narodonaselenie
Рубрика: Уровень, качество и условия жизни населения
Статья в выпуске: 3 т.24, 2021 года.
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Method of extremely critical (threshold) indicators of social development, including assessment of socio-economic risks, has been developed in the national sociology, economics, and other social sciences about three decades. For the first time development of the method as a scientific problem was stated in 1994, and there was made an attempt to construct such scale of indicators. Development of the method is going productively. There have been published a series of research works, dissertations that directly or indirectly develop or apply this method, propose different variants of constructing a scale of indicators. We have three basic components of situation diagnosis: the existing social system, the risks (challenges, threats) hampering progressive development of this system, and the extremely critical values of the risk indicators, a certain "red line", going beyond which means an increase in the probability of radical changes and further- collapse of the existing system, its transitional state and reorganization. The research and management tasks are to counteract such risks and to prevent entry of the society into the critical zone; or vice versa, to stimulate transformation of the system. The article provides an assessment of the socio-economic risks by method of extremely critical (threshold) indicators that leads to conclusion about a certain, far from complete and sufficient departure of the Russian society from the critical line of the 90s of the past century, and therefore about a tendency to reduction of the risk of another dismantlement of the existing social system. Along with these positive changes, dangerous disproportions and critical risks remain in many socio-economic indicators, primarily related to demography, population health, standards and quality of life.
Social system, method, socio-economic risks, indicators, extremely critical (threshold) values, dynamics of risks, management of risks
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/143177805
IDR: 143177805 | DOI: 10.19181/population.2021.24.3.1