Assessment of the strategic efficiency of large-scale infrastructure projects in a situation of uncertainty: a project approach

The article deals with the problems of assessing the macroeconomic efficiency of large-scale projects at the stage that is commonly called pre-investment. The necessity of taking into account the factor of radical uncertainty when evaluating large-scale railway projects is justified. The purpose of the study. To show that the effects generated by large-scale projects affect the scenario of the development of the economy hosting the project. In this problematic situation, a methodology is proposed for evaluating and identifying the most preferable project, taking into account the factors of radical (improbability) uncertainty. Materials and methods. The criteria for evaluating projects at three levels are analyzed: macro-, meso- and micro; at the same time, the tools of applied non-system analysis are used, combining logical-heuristic and economic-mathematical models of making complex project decisions. Results. A structural evaluation model has been developed, which is a hybrid consisting of two blocks. The first block is a logical-heuristic submodel for evaluating large-scale investment projects, the second block is an economic-mathematical submodel that displays the external environment of projects. The models interact at the pre-investment stage of the project lifecycle in the mode of a strategic game at the macro level. The first as an information base is based on expert estimates of the costs and results of projects that claim to be implemented in the long term, the second-mainly on statistical information from the country and regions. The impact of a new large-scale investment project on the model of the Russian economy is evaluated and the positive or negative impact of each (from among the considered ones) on the target function of the economic model is identified. Conclusion. The article comments on the results of experimental calculations using a hybrid model and, using the example of railway transport, formulates recommendations for its use in the development of substantiating materials for large-scale projects of fe¬deral significance.