Labour resource constraints and growth opportunities in economy

The article discusses the issues of forecasting employment and labour productivity in the Russian economy on the example of the material sphere. To assess the growth opportunities in this sphere under the labour resources constraints, the author used the concept of conditional effective employment based on the relationship of labour productivity and productivity of primary resources use. There are given forecasts based on the estimates of the nominal (official statistics) and conditional efficiency of employment. The extent of the restrictive impact of labour resources on the economic growth is measured by the degree of mismatch of labour demand (the estimated number of the employed) and labour supply, determined by the demographic processes. On the basis of calculations the article shows that the deficit of labour resources has become a significant restriction of the Russian economic growth, and the growth opportunities in the sphere of material production in the medium and long-term perspective (if the present level of employment remains) are limited by the annual rate of 2.5-3.0%.