Defining calculation horizon for innovation project modelling

The article is devoted to the problems of data mining. An algorithm for the simulation of industrial enterprises production has been developed. A modified production function of Cobb-Douglas taking into account the high material consumption in industrial production and autonomous technical progress, Hicks-neutral, was taken as a model. Modelling is carried out by a programming language “R” adjusted for the effects of multicollinearity factors through the mechanism of ridge regression. The article suggests the author's method of estimation of the innovative activity of industrial enterprise in the implementation of the investment project on the basis of the calculation of the integral dynamics of indicators of production elasticity obtained in the simulation. It is justified that the proposed method takes into account the specific features of the innovative project and its autonomous impact on the final results of the enterprise industrial production. It solved the problem of determining the methodological horizon for simulation operations of an industrial enterprise in the evaluation of its innovative activity as a result of the innovative project implementation which is associated with the moment of transition of the net cash flow from the project results into a positive zone. The developed method was tested on the data of the joint-stock company “CPRP” in implementing the “Vysota 239” innovative project.