Determination of planning horizon when modeling an innovation project

The article is devoted to problems of data mining. An algorithm for simulating production activity of an industrial enterprise is developed. The modified Cobb-Douglas production function, considering the high material consumption in industrial production and the Hicks-neutral autonomous technical progress, is used as a model. Modeling is carried out using the “R” programming language with the adjustment of coefficients considering the multicollinearity effect with the use of the ridge regression mechanism. The author's method of assessment for innovation activity of an industrial enterprise under implementation of the investment project on the basis of calculation of the integral dynamics of indicators of production elasticity obtained in the process of simulation, is proposed. It is proved that the proposed method takes into account the specifics of the innovation project and its autonomous impact on the final production results of industrial enterprises. Methodological problem of determining the horizon for simulation of an industrial enterprise’s operational activity under evaluation of its innovative activity as a result of introduction of the innovative project which is associated with the moment of net cash flow transition from the project results to the positive zone is solved. The developed method is tested on the data of JSC ChTPZ while implementing the Vysota-239 innovative project.