Determination of key focus areas of regional economic policy on the basis of regional economic growth econometric modeling and forecasting

The article considers the correlation between the concepts "economic growth" and "economic development, including the complex dialectical relationship between them. The evolution of approaches to the consideration of economic growth is presented, the most important aspects and theories of economic growth are outlined. One of the key indicators of economic growth at the regional level is the value of the produced gross regional product. As part of the research, analysis of the gross regional product dynamics factors is conducted. These factors include consumer spending, investment in fixed capital, expenditures of the Perm region's consolidated budget, volume of exports, average monthly nominal wage. Basing on econometric modeling, the authors identify some specifications that comply with the provisions of economic theory and contain statistically significant factors. Necessary conditions for the model's reliability and efficiency of the obtained estimates of the econometric models coefficients are verified. These are the absence of multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in the residuals of the model. The proposed regression model can be used for medium-term forecasting of the Perm region's gross regional product. Regional economic growth is mostly provided by such factors as investment in fixed capital with a four-year lag and wages. The authors propose measures to activate consumer demand and attract investment, which will foster the gross regional product growth in the Perm region. The measures are proposed with due consideration of the factors that should become the focus of the local government's attention. Gradual extension of social support for low-income families in the form of food subsidies can stimulate consumer demand. As for attracting investments, it is the use of accelerated depreciation of fixed assets that can be one of the measures.