Optimal control dynamics: control interventions for eradication of ebola virus infection

Автор: Bassey B. Echeng, Bassey Delphine Rexson

Журнал: International Journal of Mathematical Sciences and Computing @ijmsc

Статья в выпуске: 3 vol.4, 2018 года.

Бесплатный доступ

In affirmation of the existence of control interventions for the eradication of Ebola virus infection as a remedy to complete lack of outright medical cure, the present study seek and formulated using continuous ordinary differential equations an extended BEB-SEIR 4-Dimensional mathematical Ebola dynamic model vested with the scope of establishing the epidemiological impact of identified structured Ebola control measures. Derived model was presented as an optimal control problem subjected to structured dual treatment functions. Moreso, following the validity of model state components as representatives of living organisms and the establishment of existence of boundedness of solutions; we performed our analysis using classical Pontryagin’s maximum principle with which the optimality system of the model was established. Numerical simulations of derived model via Runge-Kutter of order 4 in a Mathcad surface were conducted. Result clearly indicated enhanced impact of intermediary and secondary control interventions as Ebola virus treatment functions with high significant maximization of susceptible population devoid of Ebola infection. Both the exposed and infectious classes were maximally reduced to near zero with possibilities of achieving complete eradication if time interval could be extended exceeding the of Ebola life-cycle. Furthermore, recovery rate of removed class justified the formulation and application of the model. The study therefore suggests further articulation of the model to account for possible intracellular delay in the biological mechanism.

Еще

Ebola-virus, control-intervention, treatment-function, optimality-system, schematic-vaccine, Nosocomial, transmissibility, cremation

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/15016673

IDR: 15016673   |   DOI: 10.5815/ijmsc.2018.03.04

Список литературы Optimal control dynamics: control interventions for eradication of ebola virus infection

  • Bassey E. B. (2017) On Mathematical Model of Transmission of Ebola Virus: Impact of Control Intervention. International Journal of Advances in Computer and Electronics Engineering, 2, 8, 8-14.
  • Chowell, G., Hengartner, N. W., Castillo-Chavez, C., Finimore, W, P. , Hyman, J. M. (2004) The Basic Reproductive Number of Ebola and the Effect of Public Health Measure: The case of Congo and Uganda. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 299, 1, 119-126.
  • National Reference Center for Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers (2014) Emergence of Zaire Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea. N. Engl. J. Med., 371: 1418-25.
  • Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever: Table showing known cases and Outbreaks in chronological order. Retrieved date: [09, February, 2017], online available at: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dcvrd/spl/mnpage/dispades/ebotabl.htm
  • World Health Organization (WHO). Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever: Disease Outbreaks Retrieved date: [09, February, 2017], online available at: http://www.who.int/disease-outbreak-news/disease/A98.htm
  • Chowell, G. and Nishiura, H. (2014) Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): are views. BMC Medicine, 12, 196, 1-16.
  • Bringing Ebola under control: how modeling transmission can help. Retrieved date: [10, February, 2017], online available at: http://www.biomedcentral.com/biome/bringing-ebola-under-control-how-modeling-transmission-can-help
  • Fasina F. O., Shitu A., Lazarus D., Tomori O.., Simonson Lone, V. C., and Chowell G. (2014) Transmission dynamics and control of Ebolavirus disease outbreak in Nigeria. Eurosurveillance, 19, 40, 1-7.
  • World Health Organization (2014) Ebola virus disease, West Africa” Update, 2014.
  • Pearson, J. This Mathematical Model Show How Ebola Could Wipe Us Out. Retrieved date: [10, February, 2017], online available at: http://www.motherboard.vice.com/en_uk/read/a-2006-mathematical-model–shows-how-ebola-could-wipe-us-out
  • Centers for Disease Control and prevention (CDC): Current Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Retrieved date: [12, February, 2017], online available at: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/vhf/ebola/exposure/index.html
  • World Health Organization (2014) Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa – The First 9 Months of Epidemic and Forward Projection. N. Engl. J. Medical, 371, 160, 1481-1495.
  • Breman, J. G., Piot, P., Johnson, K. M., et al. (1977) The Epidemiology of Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever in Zaire. Proc Int Colloquium on Ebola Virus. Inf held in Antwerp, Belgium.
  • Mathematical model to study the outbreak of Ebola. Retrieved date: [11, February, 2017], online available at: https://mtbi.asu.edu/sites/default/files/Mathematical_Models_to_Study_the_Outbreaks_of_Ebola.pdf
  • World Health Organization (2014) Ebola Virus Disease: Cuban Medical Team Heading for Sierra Leone. Retrieved date: [16 November, 2017], Online available at: http://www.who.int/esr/disease/ebola/en/
  • Chertow, D. S., Klrine, C., Edwards, J. K., Scaini, R., Guilimi, R. and Sprecher, A. (2014) Ebola virus disease in West Africa – Clinical Manifestation and Management. N Engl J. Med., 371, 2054-2057.
  • Birmindham, K. and Cooney, S. (2002) Ebola: Small, but real progress (news feature). Nature Med.,.8, 302-313.
  • Centers for Disease Control, GA, World Wide Web Page. Retrieved date: [11, February, 2017], online available at: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/diseases/virifvr/ebolainp.html
  • National Reference Center for Viral Hemorrhagic Fever (2014) Emergence of Zaire Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea. N. Engl. J. Med., 371: 1418-1425.
  • World Health Organization (2017) Ebola Virus Disease: Fact Sheet Update. Antibiotics Medical Centre. Retrieved date: [16, November, 2017], Online available at: http://who.int/medicacentre/factsheets/fs.103/en/
  • Gire, S. K., et al. (2014) Genomic Surveillance Eradicates Ebola Virus Origin and Transmission during the 2014 Outbreak. Science, 345 (6202): 1369-1372.
  • Culshaw, R., Ruan, S. and Spiteri, R. J. (2004) Optimal HIV Treatment by Maximizing Immune Response. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 48, 5, 545-562.
  • Hale, J. and Verduyn Lunel, S. M. (1993) Introduction to Functional Differential Equations. Applied Mathematical Science, 99, Springer-Verlag, New York.
  • Bassey E. Bassey (2017) Optimal control model for immune effectors response and multiple chemotherapy treatment (MCT) of dual delayed HIV - pathogen infections. SDRP Journal of Infectious Diseases Treatment & Therapy, 1(1) 1-18.
  • Adams, B. M., Banks, H.T., Hee-Dae K. and Tran, H.T. (2004) Dynamic Multidrug Therapies for HIV: Optimal and STI Control Approaches. Retrieved date: [24 November, 2017], Online available at: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.400.9056.
  • Fleming, W. and Rishel, R. (1975) Deterministic and Stochastic Optimal Control. Springer-Verlag, New York.
  • Lukes, D. L. (1982) Differential Equations: Classical to Controlled, Mathematics in Science and Engineering. Academic Press, New York.
  • Pontryagin, L. S., Boltyanskii, V. G., Gamkrelidze, R.V. and Mishchenko, E. F. (1986) The Mathematical Theory of Optimal Process, vol. 4. Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, New York, NY, USA, 4-5.
  • Fister, K. R., Lenhart, S. and McNally, J. S. (1998) Optimizing chemotherapy in an HIV Model. Electr. J. Diff. Eq., 32, 1-12.
  • Kirschner, D. and Webb, G. F. (1996) A Model for Treatment Strategy in the Chemotherapy of AIDS. Bull. Math. Biol., 58: 367-390.
  • Bassey, B. E. (2017) Dynamic Optimal Control Model for Periodic Multiple Chemotherapy (PMC) Treatment of Dual HIV - Pathogen Infections. J. Anal. Pharm. Res., 6(3): 00176. DOI: 10.15406/japlr.2017.06.00176, 1-22.
Еще
Статья научная