Optimal planning by the criterion of maximum expected efficiency

In the given article the technique of R&D planning on the basis of the volume determined models is described. Basically the problems concerning top level of hierarchy, namely, problems of defining the plan-scheme of realization of the basic stages of research and development and the necessary volumes of expenses are considered. The most effective and modern approach to realization of such substantiation is the use of mathematical models. It is thus essential that the models applied to the decision of problems of this level, should consider not only inner organization of the enterprise, but also pay attention to the property of environment of the enterprise with accessible completeness. As this completeness is rather limited, in view of incompleteness of the information on properties of environment of the enterprise, the planning technique should provide possibility of correction of planned offers, their recalculation under the specified data. Thus, a direct statistical estimation even for companies with a sustainable structure of production is of little use for the task. Moreover, there is no real reason to use it for businesses and innovators with dramatically changing and emerging technologies or innovative products. The only possibility which is suggested - estimation of the distribution function of the actual production on the basis of mathematical models of production, linking economic performance with the available levels of resources.