Основные направления совершенствования денежно-кредитной политики банка России

The stability and reliability of a single commercial bank directly affect the level of stability of the entire banking system of the country, therefore the definition of adequate mechanisms and instruments for regulating the activities of credit institutions is the main objective of effective banking supervision. Let’s try to figure out the differences between the two new types of banks, but firstly we will recall the most important thing.

The principle of a differentiated approach in the implementation of supervisory functions will, in our opinion, assign the predominant role to the regulatory method rather than the managing influence on the work of credit institutions, which will help create conditions for more efficient functioning of both federal and regional banks. Bank of Russia approaches to monetary policy are determined, on the one hand, by the nature of the impact on the economy and inflation of the instruments at the disposal of the central bank, and on the other hand by the structural and institutional features of the Russian economy, consumer price dynamics and inflation expectations. In the framework of the inflation targeting regime, the impact of monetary policy on prices is primarily through the management of domestic demand. The central bank influences inflation through a long chain of relationships, the so-called transmission mechanism. By setting a key rate, the Bank of Russia has an impact on interest rates in various segments of the financial market, which affects the availability of credit, propensity to save, affects domestic demand and inflation. The interest rates of the financial market react fairly quickly to changes in the key rate. But in order for the signal from the rates to fully translate into the dynamics of demand, economic activity and led to a change in inflation, it takes a period of three to six quarters, and it is called the lag of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The Bank of Russia regularly monitors a wide range of price indicators, considering various components and groups of components of the consumer basket, examines their dynamics for different periods of time: month, quarter, year. To assess the stability of certain processes in the price dynamics, the basic inflation and its modifications are analyzed, that is, price indices, from which goods with frequently and significantly varying prices are excluded. For the same purposes, an analysis of the inflation indicators averaged over different periods is carried out. In 2017 there was a fairly clear transfer of the signal from the key rate to the money market rates, which is the operational goal of monetary policy. One-day rates of the interbank market MIACR and RUONIA were formed near the key rate: in January-October their average absolute deviation from them was 0.23 and 0.26 percentage points, respectively. (0.19 and 0.22 as a whole for 2016). At the same time, there was a high activity of transactions between lending institutions in all segments of the money market. In January-October 2017, the turnover of the overnight segment of the interbank market averaged about 450 billion rubles, the turnover in the related segments of one-day swaps and repo was about 1,650 and 800 billion rubles. respectively. The continued high activity of banks in the money market reflects the normal operation of the first link in the transmission mechanism.

Source: Bank of Russia

Figure 6. The interest rate corridor of the Bank of Russia and the RUONIA rate for a period of 1 day (% per annum)

A significant contribution to the formation of a liquidity surplus was also made by measures for the rehabilitation of banks, within the framework of which funds were provided through the Deposit Insurance Agency under the previous mechanism, as well as provision of loans to the Deposit Insurance Agency to pay compensation to depositors of banks with a revoked license.

Since the IV quarter of 2016 the Bank of Russia has moved to regular holding of deposit auctions. In January-October 2017, through these operations, the Bank of Russia, on average, absorbed about 700 billion rubles a week surplus funds. Limits on deposit auctions, that is, the maximum amount of funds that the Bank of Russia intended to attract into deposits, were established taking into account the influence of factors in the formation of liquidity in the banking sector, including budget flows and funds allocated for the rehabilitation of banks. At the same time, the amount of the limit could vary significantly from week to week, which is due to the high volatility inherent in the autonomous factors of liquidity formation, primarily the change in cash in circulation and in budgetary flows. For example, in some periods, the outflow of funds from the banking sector reached 700-800 billion rubles, which required an appropriate adjustment of the limit of deposit auctions.

In forming the forecast for the next three years, the Bank of Russia believes that the set and nature of the operation of the fundamental factors affecting the situation in the Russian economy and the price dynamics will not change significantly.

In terms of internal financial conditions, in all scenarios, they are expected to gradually soften, supporting balanced economic growth, which will be determined by a number of factors. As inflation consolidates around 4%, the Bank of Russia will continue to reduce the key rate and gradually transition from a moderately tight to a neutral monetary policy. In the medium-term horizon, the equilibrium level of the real interest rate for Russia is estimated at 2-3%, which implies the possibility of reducing the nominal key rate to 6.00-7.00% while maintaining inflation close to 4%.The Bank of Russia, on a quarterly basis, updates forecast calculations as new data become available, as well as the implementation of certain events. This allows you to make decisions on monetary policy based on current and most complete information. Updated forecast parameters with detailed comments are regularly published in the Bank of Russia Monetary Policy Report.