Pension Reform as a Factor behind the Opposition’s Victories in the 2018 Subnational Elections

The author examines the impact of the pension reform on the outcomes of the 2018 regional and municipal elections. An analysis of electoral statistics and public opinion survey data from 2012–2018 shows that the pension reform reduced the ruling authorities’ results in the 2018 single voting day by approximately 10–16 percentage points. The opposition won in a number of regions and regional capitals due to the combination of this decline in pro-government voting and the specific political conditions of these territories. This suggests that any future opposition victories are likewise likely to remain confined to the most favorable areas, without prospects for broader expansion. The electoral dynamics of 2012–2018 indicate that economic difficulties influence protest voting primarily in an indirect manner – by increasing the likelihood of the government adopting unpopular measures. The electoral consequences of any subsequent unpopular decisions by the authorities will depend on the level of politicization among the population and the degree of governmental control over the electoral process. At present, the authorities have largely managed to neutralize the negative effects of the 2018 elections, which points to a high level of adaptability within the political system.