Prospects of the demographic development of Russia until the mid-century

Автор: Arkhangelsky Vladimir Nikolayevich, Danilova Irina Andreyevna, Dmitriev Ruslan Vasivievich, Khasanova Ramila Rafaelevna

Журнал: Народонаселение @narodonaselenie

Рубрика: Демография: анализ и прогнозы

Статья в выпуске: 3 (77), 2017 года.

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The article presents the results of the demographic forecast of Russia for the period up to 2050; the forecast is made in five variants. The most probable of them is the main. There are calculated high and low variant forecasts, which determine the limits of the probable population dynamics, the sex and age structure of the population, and other demographic indicators. In addition, there are developed optimistic and pessimistic versions of the forecast, beyond which, according to the authors, the demographic indicators in Russia cannot go in the period up to 2050 under any circumstances, one can imagine now. According to the most probable variant of the forecast, the population size will continuously decline after 2021, and by the beginning of 2050 it will make 141763.7 thousand (4781 thousand less than at the beginning of 2016), the share of the working-age population will be significantly reducing until 2024 and from 2035.

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Demographic projection, fertility, life expectancy, population size, sex and age structure

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/143173436

IDR: 143173436   |   DOI: 10.26653/1561-7785-2017-3-2

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