Prospects for geosystem monitoring of the forests at the by-Oka-terrace biosphere reserve in the context of modern global warming

The By-Oka-Terrace Biosphere Reserve is considered as an object of regional climatically conditioned monitoring of forests on the southern boundary of the boreal belt of the East European subcontinent. The presented perspectives of scientific research on monitoring are based on the previously developed geoecological concept “Global changes at the local level”. The proposed research program is presented in the form of an experimental geoecological analysis, with the implementation of the full triad of ecological monitoring of forest ecosystems “observation - forecast -management”. The ideological and scientific-methodological foundations of the concept of geosystem monitoring are characterized. Methods of basic and predictive empirical-statistical modeling of structural and functional characteristics of forest biogeocenoses are presented. A working algorithm for geosystem monitoring of forests is described, in which a sliding (pendulum) operating system serves as an analysis tool, with repeated repetition of observation and forecast stages (against the background of ongoing climatic trends) and with the identification of environmental effects of control feedback.