Automotive market recovery outlook

The analysis of situation in automotive market is conducted. Possible scenarios of its development are considered on the example of the Chelyabinsk region. The choice of this market is made due to two main factors: firstly, according to the volume of sales of new motor cars, this regional market is comparable to the markets of some European countries, most of which outnumber significantly the population of the Chelyabinsk region. Secondly, it is shown that the research of this regional market is essential because it is possible to obtain a real picture of the processes that take place on the automotive market, which is not distorted by various kinds of circumstances that have a significant impact on the final results. The main factors defining the character of functioning of the automobile market are considered. The degree of their influence in the current economic conditions is demonstrated. It is especially emphasized that the phenomena observed here at present, significantly differ from those observed in the previous crisis. Therefore, the experience gained in the process of overcoming the crisis of 2009-2010 has proven to be insufficient in the current situation. The forecast of development of the regional automotive market is presented in the medium term. Special attention is paid to the analysis of possibility of new boom of the domestic automotive market. It is shown that it will have a fundamentally different nature than it had in previous "waves of growth" (2007-2008 and 2011-2012). It is justified that a new "wave of growth" will be observed even in the case of development of the domestic economy according to unfavorable scenarios, that will only lead to the decrease in the intensity of its dynamics.