Политика современной Турции на Ближнем Востоке: неоосманские амбиции и стратегия управляемого хаоса

The study examines the evolution of Turkey’s contemporary foreign policy in the Middle East, with a specific focus on the concepts of neo-Ottomanism and “managed chaos”. It demonstrates that, having abandoned the “Zero Problems with Neighbors” doctrine, Ankara has transitioned to a proactive and multi-vector strategy, employing a broad arsenal of covert and hybrid instruments. These include not only military interventions, but also soft power, religious networks, educational foundations and NGOs that serve as a cover for intelligence gathering and logistical support for proxy formations. The study also considers hydro-geopolitics as an instrument of pressure on neighbors (Syria, Iraq) and the implementation of the “Blue Homeland” doctrine in the Eastern Mediterranean. Particular attention is paid to the instrumentalization of the Syrian conflict, where demographic engineering and the creation of de facto protectorates serve the purposes of weakening the Kurdish factor and territorial expansion. The proposed multi-level game-theoretic model explains the logic of Ankara’s strategic decisions in the context of incomplete information and dynamic interaction with key players (Russia, the United States). In conclusion, it is concluded that the strategy of “controlled chaos” ensures tactical success, but leads to long-term destabilization and the growth of regional resistance.