Alcohol consumption as health risk factor for the population in the RF regions in the ‘before crisis’ and ‘after crisis’ periods (2017-2022)

In this study, we have estimated alcohol consumption and alcohol-associated incidence in the RF regions in the ‘before crisis’ (2017-2019) and ‘crisis’ (2020-2022) periods. We identified types of the RF regions using hierarchical cluster analysis (Ward’s method) and relying on indirect indicators of alcohol consumption. As a result, we established considerable differences between the macro-regions (the Federal Districts) and RF regions as per alcohol consumption and severity of its outcomes. Poles in this differentiation are represented by ‘favorable’ regions in the Southern Russia where alcohol sales, alcohol-associated crime and incidence are low and ‘unfavorable’ regions located in the Far East and southern Siberia where alcohol-associated crime and incidence are high. We have shown in this study that retail alcohol sales cannot be considered a sufficient indicator to describe alcohol use in a given region. Thus, considerable volumes of alcohol sales involve severe socially significant outcomes in some regions (for example, the Khabarovsk region and Primorye) whereas such outcomes do not occur in other regions with similarly high alcohol sales (Moscow, Saint Petersburg, the Moscow region and the Leningrad region). The level of socioeconomic welfare on a given territory is confirmed as a significant determinant of alcohol consumption. We have also analyzed a correlation between economic vulnerability of RF regions during the ‘pandemic’ and ‘sanction’ crises and levels of alcohol consumption. The analysis revealed that large industrial regions, though expected to be vulnerable, turned out to be quite stable (it is probable due to delayed macroeconomic effects). We have not been able to identify any resources of improving a tense situation with alcohol consumption in economically unfavorable but less vulnerable subsidized agricultural regions. In general, the crisis period of 2020-2022 can be considered a source of additional health risks for the population in the RF regions where the situation with alcohol consumption was rather unfavorable in the ‘before crisis’ period.