Predictive and analytical capabilities of macroeconomic models in conditions of crisis economic development (using the example of the QUMMIR model)

The article deals with the use of econometric macromodels for solving applied problems to substantiate economic policy. The questions of the applicability of econometric methods for modeling economic processes are considered. The requirements for the key qualities of complex macroeconomic models are being formed. Emphasis is placed on the fact that it is econometric modeling based on large amounts of data that contributes to a deep analysis of the causal relationships existing in the economy. As an illustration, we use the description of the quarterly macroeconomic model QUMMIR, which has been used for a decade and a half at the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences for medium-term forecasting. It is shown that in conditions of increasing economic uncertainty, the importance of analyzing scenarios of socio-economic development and substantiating economic policy measures aimed at tapping the internal potential of economic development increases. We argue that the use of advanced predictive and analytical tools can significantly improve the quality of forecast estimates and the validity of decisions made on their basis. The structure of the model is described in detail with an emphasis on budget and financial blocks. The final part of the article provides an example of using a quarterly macroeconomic model to analyze decisions in the field of fiscal and monetary policy. Calculations demonstrate a positive impact on the dynamics of GDP on the part of budget system expenditures in the absence of a significant effect on the growth of inflation. In terms of monetary policy, calculations demonstrate its relative neutrality in relation to economic dynamics, as well as the exhaustion of the positive impact on the economy in the current conditions due to the weakening of the ruble exchange rate.