Predictors of the development of diseases involving waldeyer's ring and their complications in athletes with different physical activity in the climate of the Ural and Siberian region

Aim. The paper aims to develop risk models for predicting pharyngeal complications in peritonsillar abscess by means of logistic regression; to optimize prevention and treatment measures based on the study of predictors of diseases involving Waldeyer's ring in athletes and individuals with different physical activity in the climate of the Ural and Siberian region. Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis of 303 clinical cases of acute inflammatory diseases of the pharynx in athletes with different physical activity was performed. The total sample was divided into 2 groups: athletes with parapharyngeal abscess and athletes with peritonsillar abscess. A comparative analysis of the clinical signs of the abovementioned diseases was performed by using contingency tables. Based on the data obtained, medical treatment was provided with non-drug therapy. Results. Contingency tables and the data obtained as a result of comparative analysis between peritonsillar abscess/parapharyngeal abscess made it possible to quantify the clinical signs. The criteria for the occurrence of these clinical signs (in %) were identified, as well as non-specific, specific and pathognomonic signs of diseases involving Waldeyer's ring in athletes. Individual predictors of diseases were identified and a probabilistic model of developing parapharyngeal complications was developed by means of logistic regression and 15 equations. Conclusion. The probabilistic model of the predictors of developing tonsillitis makes it possible to improve the prognosis of peritonsillar complications up to 98% and to take timely corrective measures.