Iranian scenario of anti-Russian sanctions - preliminary analysis of the vulnerability of the major Russian banks

The purpose of the study is to identify the major banks most vulnerable to sanctions pressure, in which 91 % of the net assets of the Russian banking sector are concentrated. The empirical base of the study was compiled using open data from the financial statements of the major Russian banks. To identify the vulnerability of Russian banks to sanctions pressure, an integral index was developed that included financial and ownership variables. The choice of indicators for assessing the vulnerability of the Russian banking sector during the period of sanctions was based on an analysis of Russian and foreign studies that assess the impact of economic sanctions on Iranian banks. According to the author, this analogy is justified due to the significant similarity of the sanctions regimes of the countries under consideration and the structure of their economies. The most significant variables for calculating this index were chosen: affiliation with backbone banks, the ratio of bad loans to the total loan portfolio, the ratio of liquid assets to net assets, the share of short-term loans in the total portfolio, and the share of non-interest income in the total operating income of companies. As a result of the study, five major Russian banks were identified, the finances of which are the most vulnerable to sanctions pressure. The net assets of these banks account for about 11 % of the total net assets of Russian banks.