Reasons for formation of counter commodity flows in international chains of goods supply

The subject of the study is counter-commodity flows arising due to various political, economic and organizational reasons in international trade, namely the probability of their occurrence, estimated mathematically and grouped by the degree of influence of a set of factors. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology for assessing the likelihood of counterflow formation, as well as to test the calculation formula for the conditions of a particular international logistics center. The main method used in the work is factor analysis, which made it possible to assess the degree of influence of a large range of supply conditions on the probability of counter flows. The study also uses methods of analysis, collection and processing of statistical data, systematization, coefficients, ranking. It has been shown that the dependence of the probability of counter commodity flows on some factors can be expressed quantitatively based on the available statistical data presented on the official websites of the Internet of international organizations and rating agencies. The formula for assessing the probability of counter commodity flows is universal, confirms the theoretical conclusions of the researcher in the field of logistics and gives objective results for specific logistics centers. The whole spectrum of the main factors leading to the formation of counter commodity flows was formed, and recommendations were given to eliminate them or reduce their impact. The results of the study will increase labor productivity in logistics and the efficiency of supply chains of goods based on minimizing the risks of counter commodity flows. Conclusions and calculations can be applied by all participants in logistics chains from manufacturers and suppliers to transport companies and logistics intermediaries.