Appliance of method of index numbers for economic scenario analysis

The article presents the application of scenario analysis to planning and forecasting of regions and industries strategic development. The challenges of scenario analysis are comparison of targeted indicators from the different scenarios, estimation of spread among them and determination of ways of its reduction. However, such a practice demands analysis of complex phenomenon - groups of factors that cannot be summed up. Authors suggest to use the method of index numbers as a solution. Index as a comparative spread indicator between scenarios allows to compare factors with different units of measurement and also to compare groups of targeted indicators. Additional advantage of the method of index numbers is the determination of necessitate growth rate for elimination of the spread between the scenarios. Therefore, comparison of optimistic and basic scenarios by indexes estimation solves the challenge of analysis of targeted indicators achievement.