Application of subjective probabilities, criteria of expected utility and probability-theoretical models with heavy tails in the management of social and economic objects

This article discusses the methods of subjective probability and the functional of the expected utility, as well as their application in practice to obtain the optimal scenario of testing a new module of the project. To do this, a scenario method is used that defines the action options. Then, using the method of quantitative subjective probability with finite set (Bayes’ formula), probabilities of costs, profits and attractiveness are calculated for each scenario. On the basis of the obtained subjective probabilities, the functional of the expected utility is calculated. After that, the best scenario is chosen. In conclusion, the study of existing project defects using the optimal scenario is presented and its description as a model with “heavy tails” is given. An experimental histogram and two ways of its approximation were constructed for the normal law and for the distribution taking into account the “heavy tail” of the histogram.