The criminal situation development approximate forecast at the East Siberian Railway transport infrastructure facilities

The study is focused on a criminological analysis of the current situation at the transport infrastructure facilities of the East Siberian Railway. The point is that the paper presents a scientifically based forecast for the development of crime in transport in the specified region for the next 3 years. The purpose of research is to develop, based on scientific criminological methods, an approximate forecast of the development of the criminal situation at the transport infrastructure facilities of the East Siberian Railway. The objectives of the study are to, on the basis of a sound scientific method, identify key patterns in the development of crime at the transport infrastructure facilities of the East Siberian Railway and substantiate the significant criminologically prognostic conclusions made regarding the development of crime in transport in the named region until 2025. The object of the study was the patterns of crime development at railway transport facilities in the East Siberian Region. The methodological basis of this scientific study was the extrapolation method. In addition, other methods were used, including the analysis of official statistics, induction, deduction, and the dialectical method of cognition. The main new result of this study is the presentation of an approximate forecast for the development of the criminal situation at the transport infrastructure facilities of the East Siberian Railway (with the reduction and justification of specific figures) until 2025. The author rightly states that, unfortunately, the forecast cannot be considered comforting, since a growth trend in absolute indicators of registered crime in transport has been revealed, therefore, indicators of serious and especially serious crimes, the growth rate of thefts committed in transport may increase. A slight decrease in disclosure rates is also predicted. At the same time, it is emphasized that criminological forecasts are exemplary in nature, and therefore cannot be considered absolutely accurate. In this regard, much attention should be paid to activities for the preventionism and prevention of crimes in transport.