Problems of sustainable development of dairy cattle farming in Russian regions under sanctions

The aim of this study is to assess the differentiated impact of sanctions on the socio-economic development of dairy cattle farming, taking into account its adaptation mechanism at the regional level. A systematization of factors was carried out, identifying seven levels with critical threshold values, an adaptation strategy matrix, and a methodological framework based on factor analysis, verified using Rosstat panel data for 2019–2024 and expert assessments. Due to the varying scales of input parameters and the temporal dynamics of the processes under study, an integral assessment system was employed, utilizing three complementary methodologies. The linear convolution method revealed stable long-term industry development trends based on averaged values of normalized indicators. The geometric convolution method, more sensitive to sharp changes in the industry's structure and development rates, highlighted the specific impact of transformations in the political-economic sphere after 2020. The use of Harrington's desirability function made it possible to interpret the assessment results in terms of the industry's functional sustainability. The modeling results showed that, despite the economic, technological, and logistical shocks of sanctions, there is steady growth in key indicators, and by 2024, signs of systemic stability and economic maturity are emerging. Based on the developed methodology for assessing the sustainability of dairy cattle farming, a rating result is presented, incorporating economic, production, market, and socio-ecological components with justified weights. This approach accounted for regional industry specifics, ensured comparability of results across territories, and reflected the significance of each factor for assessing development sustainability. The results can be used as a decision-making tool in agricultural production and for developing regional support programs. Differentiated recommendations for overcoming the consequences of sanctions have been developed for regions with varying levels of dairy farming sustainability: leaders (index >0.7); average level (0.5–0.7); low level (≤0.5). The research is of interest not only to specialists in the agro-industrial complex but also to a wide audience concerned with the processes of the Russian economy's adaptation to external challenges.