Forecast of demographic capacity of the Rostov region in the first half of the XXI century

In the article the contemporary demographic potential of the Rostov region is studied. The possible variants of scenarios of the regional population number dynamics till 2030 and 2050 are presented. The calculations were made for the region in the whole and also for all its large cities and village administrative districts. The calculations made allowed drawing the conclusion about the inevitable reduction of the population number of the region. The central role in the given process has the natural population decline. However in the nearest and even in the middle term period the demographic losses can be considerably limited (during the period 2010-2030 they can make up 4-5 % from the total population number of the year 2010). In the nearest future with a high probability the pace of the population decline of the region will grow. In 2031-2050 the population drop can make up 350-700 thousand people. In the middle of the XXI century the population of the region will reduce to 3,2-3,9 million people or will be 8-25 % lower than in year 2010...