Forecast of maximum daily means of relativistic electron fluxes at the geostationary orbit during the magnetic storm recovery phase

This paper presents relation between maximum daily means of relativistic electron fluxes with energy of >2 MeV derived from measurements aboard geostationary satellites GOES during the magnetic storm recovery phase with solar wind parameters and magnetospheric activity indices. Along with conventional geomagnetic activity indices (AE, Kp, Dst), we used parameters of Pc5 and Pi1 geomagnetic pulsations and those of relativistic electron fluxes in the pre-storm period and magnetic storm main phase. We proposed a simple model for forecasting relativistic electron fluxes on first three days of the magnetic storm recovery phase. Predicted values of relativistic electron flux level of outer radiation belt have a high degree of correlation with the observed ones (R ~ 0.8-0.9).