Prediction of oil and gas occurrence in the zone of Permian arch, northern terminations of Bymsky-Kungursky monocline and Babkinsky saddle, and north-western part of Yuryuzano-Sylvensky depression junction

In present-day economic realities, mitigating geological risks and, in particular, costs of dry well drilling by improving reliability of hydrocarbon potential prediction in underexplored territories is an actual problem of regional geological exploration activities. Over the past decade, 3D basin modelling has become one of the standards for these activities; this methodology reduces the risks and costs to companies, which may originate from inaccurate evaluation of oil and gas bearing capacity. In this work, the authors are assessing future trends and resource potential of all major plays in the underexplored lands of the Perm Krai; they have used the method of geological and geophysical data analysis based on basin modelling. Resulting from the study, 3D basin model of the junction zones (Yuryuzano-Sylvensky depression, Bymsky-Kungursky monocline, Babkinsky saddle, and Permsky arch) was created, and recommendations on future trends in oil and gas exploration were provided. In addition to the practical problems of prospecting for new hydrocarbon accumulations and their quantitative assessment, the authors have managed to identify the key patterns of oil and gas migration across the study area. The mentioned scientific findings will allow minimizing the modelling errors associated with selection of modelling boundaries and with accounting for oil and gas source rock occurrence in the territory in the future studies aimed at evaluation of hydrocarbon generation, migration, and accumulation