The forecast of the long-term medical radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident for population of Russia and Republic of Belarus on the main radiation-caused diseases

According to requirements of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), controlling measures after radiation accident should be planned with due consideration of possible radiation risks, and the exposed population has to be informed on potential health risks. Lifetime radiation risks for the population of the contaminated regions of Bryansk and Gomel areas registered in the Joint Russian-Belarus Chernobyl registry was calculated with the models recommended by the international organizations. During 1986-2016 possible lifetime adverse radiation effects on health condition were manifested as leukemia and thyroid cancer (both as the number of cases, and potential years of life lost) in 42% of expected cases; breast cancer - in 28%, radiation associated mortality from breast cancer - in 22%. After 2016 the expected number of radiation-related leukemia and thyroid cancer cases, as well as deaths from the diseases and potential years of life lost will exceed the numbers of 1986-2016 by 1.4 times. Radiation related breast cancer incidence will increase by 3.5 times as compared with 1986-2016, mortality from breast cancer will increase by 2.5 times. Obtained estimates of lifetime radiation risks clearly show the need for long-term radioecological surveillance of the affected areas and health monitoring of affected population.