The forecast of crime rate in the Volgograd region: a comprehensive approach

The article examines the factors affecting the crime rate in the Volgograd region in long term up to 2020. The author considers the need for a comprehensive approach, presents theses expressing doubts about the consideration of the number of registered crimes as the main showing in the crime situation assessment. Also, the paper justifies the groundlessness of the mechanical extrapolation method in modern rapidly changing conditions (in contrast to the Soviet period) and the method of mathematical statistics applied to unstable regions.