Birth rate forecast when modeling the population growth

The paper presents an analytical review of the mathematical models used for the population forecast considering the current understanding of demographic processes in the global world. It is shown that in the context of the global demographic transition and the population hyperbolic growth there is a trend towards lower birth rate and population stabilization. The case study in Perm region describes the population structure statistical data analysis for the period of 2010-2014 and demonstrates the decreasing interaction of fertile women population and the birth rate if to compare with other age groups.