Price forecasting in the housing market amid changes in the primary trend

The development of digital technologies contributes to the growth of the use of nonparametric methods. The presented study proposes a methodology for the forecast assessment of prices in the residential real estate market, taking into account the possible determination of the direction of dynamics in the anticipation period based on the application of nonparametric Nadaraya - Watson estimation. The forecast model construction in the work is considered on the basis of the historically established tendency of determination of the price level of the primary or secondary housing market of Krasnodar Krai and does not take into account other factors. Particular attention is paid to the application of the Chow test to identify the point in time at which there was a structural shift, which allows to determine the period devoid of structural breaks for modeling the trend in order to determine the confidence interval of the forecast. The existing housing problem reflects the relevance of the development of methods for forecasting price dynamics in the housing market, and the absence of additional factors reduces the error and increases the forecast quality.