Forecasting the rural population dynamics and its impact on the rural territories socio-economic development(by the materials of the Krasnoyarsk region)

The paper discusses the features of the territorial development of rural areas associated with the dynamics of the population and its sex and age structure. The purpose of the study is to determine, using materials from the Krasnoyarsk Region, how the rural population will change by 2030; to characterize the influence of certain gender and age groups on the socio-economic sphere of rural areas. The growth rates of the most economically active and able-bodied rural population, in particular, women of reproductive age, have been studied. To build demographic forecasts, the authors used the method of shifting ages by one-year sex and age groups. As a result, it was determined that in the future until 2030, the reduction in the rural population of the Krasnoyarsk Region can be from 35-62 thousand people. According to the low forecast scenario, the threshold of 600 thousand people can be overcome in 2026, according to the medium scenario - in 2027, according to the high scenario - in 2029. The number of women should be reduced by 9,5 %, to 286 thousand people, men - up to 285 thousand people (by 6,8-7,5 %), children of preschool age - by 5,2-6,5 thousand people , school-age children - by 14-16 thousand people. The number of able-bodied population will grow due to the increase in the retirement age by 10-12 thousand people, while the conditionally able-bodied population (15-65 years old), on the contrary, will decrease by 25-28 thousand people. In the social sphere of the village, the occupancy of educational institutions will significantly decrease, the burden on social workers and the workload of the bed fund of rural polyclinics will increase. In the economic sphere, a decrease in the number of the most economically active rural population, a reduction in the total consumption of goods and services, and a slowdown in the entrepreneurial activity of the rural population are expected. It is possible to influence the improvement of the socio-economic sphere of the village, but only by revising the standards of social services in the fields of education and healthcare, introducing progressive forms of remuneration, as well as raising the minimum wage.