Forecasting the human resources supply in the Ural Federal District

Introduction: the current unstable condition of economic development raises the relevance of the study devoted to the availability of human resources and forecasting their numbers. Objectives: scenario forecasting of the change dynamics in human resources in the Ural Federal District aimed at identifying the existing trends. Methods: the ARIMA/ARMA modeling method was used to design three forecast scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic and inertial). Results: the study constructed forecast scenarios of personnel availability in the Ural Federal District, which demonstrate multidirectional trends caused by a set of economic, demographic and social factors. The inertial scenario demonstrates a stable dynamic of employment decline; the pessimistic scenario assumes an accelerated decline in the number of employees; the optimistic scenario reflects stabilization and increase in the number of human resources associated with possible recovery and economic growth. Conclusions: the theoretical significance of the obtained results lies in the development of research related to scenario forecasting of human resources availability. The results of the study will allow us to identify the shortage of these resources in specific areas, make strategic decisions and develop measures to reduce tensions in the labor market.