Forecasting the economic growth limitations in the northern regions based on the “sustainability windows” assessment

In modern conditions, the issues of assessing the sustainability of regional development are of particular relevance. The complex problems of interrelation of economic growth, environmental pollution and population well-being require the development and use of new, simpler and more understandable approaches for decision makers to assess, analyze, and predict sustainability at the regional level. The purpose of the article is to investigate the opportunities for sustainable development of the regions of the European North included in the Arctic zone, and to develop methods for forecasting their socio-environmental and economic development based on sustainability window assessment. The dynamics of changes in the relationship between environmental, social and economic indicators with the use of pollution functions is analyzed. The main factors contributing to the reduction of environmental pollution and increase of the population's well-being are identified. It is shown that structural changes in the regional economy and environmental investments have the greatest effect. A methodology for calculating sustainability windows for the regional economy is presented. The possibility of using the method has been demonstrated using data from the Republic of Karelia. A scenario of sustainable development based on the restriction of economic growth for some regions and the requirements for the structure of the economy has been developed. The results obtained can be used as an informational and methodological basis for assessing and elaborating sustainable development policies in the Arctic regions.