Prognostication of the demands of economics in qualified personnel: review of approaches and application experience

This article is devoted to a review of approaches and practices of applying macroeconomic methods of prognosticating demands of economics in qualified personnel. In order to manage university activities, prognostication of demand for qualified staff with higher education within the region is the basis for forming the graduates recruitment policy, including via forming control enrollment numbers. Academic periodical contain many original publications but there is no review article on this topic. The article presents a complete overview of Russian and international publications for the period between 1990 and 2016 devoted to the topic of personnel prognostication of economic demands. Theoretical and practical scope of review article covers the analysis of the «economics - labour market - education system» interrelations. «Annual additional demand for personnel in economics» is described as well its differences from «vacancy» notion. The authors provide basics of macroeconomic prognostication methodology with high detalization of personnel demand calculations (to the type of economic activities, professions in economics, professional education training programs. The article presents matrices of professional and qualification compliance which allows for shifting from quantitative prognostication evaluation according to economic activities types to demand for professions in economics and educational specializations. Publications analysis demonstrates that macroeconomic method of prognostication is commonly acknowledged and is used for planning enrolment in higher and medium level education institutions both at federal and regional levels. Employer polls are supplementary and allow for tuning coefficients of macroeconomic method model. Despite the fact that macroeconomic prognostication method has been under development for many years there is still a number of unsolved questions related to different stages of prognostication algorithm implementation. These questions are analyzed in the section «Problem areas for future research». Particular importance of the macroeconomic prognostication methodology is in practical activities of federal, research, and flagship universities, as they are responsible for personnel support of federal areas, industry branches and regions respectively. Novelty and value of the article is in the fact that this is the first publication in Russian academic periodic literature which contains both personnel prognostication methods analysis and their practical implementation for ensuring balance at the labour market in terms of professional and qualification content.